Tigers vs. Padres MLB Best Bet: San Diego Completes Sweep in Run-Line Fashion

With just a little more than three weeks remaining in the 2024 season, the San Diego Padres are trying to keep the pressure on the Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West, and they can close the gap Thursday evening as favorites against the Detroit Tigers.

The Tigers turn to Casey Mize (2-6, 4.36) to help them avoid being swept, while Martín Perez (4-5, 4.71) toes the rubber for the Padres. BetOnline is selling San Diego on a -150 moneyline, with an 8½-run total that is evenly priced.

Series Notes & Rivalry Trends

One of two MLB matchups this week that scheduled an off day during the series, the Padres and Tigers got underway on Monday when Joe Musgrove delivered the first six shutout innings of a 3-0 San Diego victory. The Padres were -200 chalk and the contest remained comfortably ‘under’ an 8-run total.

After taking Tuesday off, the clubs reconvened last night at Petco Park where the Tigers raced to a 5-0 lead only to see that disappear in a 6-5 San Diego win in 10. Fernando Tatis Jr.’s RBI single walked it off for the Padres who were -180 favorites on the MLB odds.

San Diego’s triumph on Wednesday left the Padres 4-1 in the rivalry over the past two seasons, though the Tigers still hold a 16-11 edge in interleague matchups. Detroit also prevailed in the only postseason meeting between the clubs, taking the 1984 World Series in five games.

Totals have split so far in this series, and stand 2-2-1 O/U/P the last two years. Both teams have trended to the ‘over’ on the season with Detroit 70-65-5 O/U/P while San Diego is 76-62-3.

Perez Baffled Tigers Earlier This Season

Mize’s return from a 2-month stint in the injured list went so-so last Friday at home against the Red Sox. The first overall pick from the 2018 draft made it through 6 innings on 85 tosses, allowing 4 runs (3 earned) for a no-decision in Detroit’s 7-5 loss in extra innings.

A hamstring injury cost Mize all of July and the first 29 days of August before the outing, and the good news was making it through 6 innings on what these days is an efficient number of pitches. The bad news is it was Detroit’s eighth loss in his last 12 starts after the club began the season 5-0 in his April assignments.

Thursday will mark the first time Mize has faced the Padres, and only a few of their players – Xander Bogaerts, Luis Arraez and Kyle Higashioka – have faced him before from their days toiling in the AL.

It was a perfect August for Perez and the Padres after he was acquired in a deadline deal with the Pirates. San Diego won all 6 of his starts while Perez fashioned a 3.41 ERA, and the only real drawback was allowing 7 HR in the 31+ frames.

Perez needed help from his lineup in the most recent outing, and he got it in a 13-5 Padres laugher at Tampa Bay last Friday. The southpaw was knocked around a bit (5 IP, 4 ER, 7 H, 3 BB), but it was still good enough for the Padres to cash as small underdogs.

He faced the Tigers earlier this season in Pittsburgh, and was outstanding with 8 innings of work and only a run allowed. Pirate relievers blew the lead, however, relegating Perez to a no-decision.

Umpire Notes & Mother Nature

Now in his 28th big league season, Phil Cuzzi draws the plate assignment in this series finale. Cuzzi is dead-level this season on MLB odds boards with an 11-11-4 O/U/P record, but was a friend to ‘under’ bettors the last two seasons with a combined 23-36-1 O/U/P record.

Sunset will still be about 90 minutes away when this contest gets underway at 5:40 PM local time, and the weatherman is listing 84° for Perez’s first pitch. There’s also a slight WNW breeze (LF corner to 1B) in the forecast.

The Pick

Detroit was feeling good coming into this series having won 8 of its last 10, but the two setbacks to the Padres have wiped smiles off the Tigers’ faces. Blowing a 5-0 lead like they did on Wednesday can often have a carry-over effect.

San Diego, meanwhile, has won 3 in a row and can cut LA’s lead in the NL West to 4 games with a victory. The Padres used 9 pitchers on Wednesday when Yu Darvish’s first start in more than three months was short-lived, but Tuesday’s off day prevents that from being a big issue.

It’s San Diego all the way on Thursday with a free MLB pick on the Padres to broom the Tigers out of town with a run-line winner.

MLB Pick: Padres -1.5 (+135) at BetOnline

Padres -1.5 (+135)

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