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Tigers vs. Astros MLB Postseason Best Bet: Game 1 To See More Runs Than Expected
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LT Profits
- October 1, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Over 6 (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The 2024 MLB Playoffs begin on Tuesday with Game 1 of all four Wild Card Series. And as we have been all season, we are here with the three plays from top sportsbooks we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which fancies the total in the first playoff game from Houston at 2:32 PM ET in the Tigers vs. Royals matchup on Tuesday.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for the latest odds, expert insights, and all the info you need to make winning bets this postseason.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks, check out:
- Royals vs. Orioles AL Wild Card Game 1
- Mets vs. Brewers NL Wild Card Game 1
And make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel, where our expert covered the Mets vs. Brewers and Braves vs. Padres games.
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, October 01, 2024 – 02:32 PM ET at Minute Maid Park
The first playoff game of the 2024 season is certainly a nice pitching matchup with Tarik Skubal and the Tigers visiting Framber Valdez and the Astros. However, we simply feel this posted total is too low and are backing the Over at a deflated number.
Cy Young Favorite, But…
Tarik Skubal is the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award, and deservedly so. He led the American League and tied for the Major League lead in wins going 18-4 while ranking second in the majors in ERA at 2.39 and third in xFIP at 2.83. He also finished fifth in strikeout rate at 10.69/9 and allowed three earned runs or less in 26 of his 31 starts.
However, our issue here is with the game total of 6 that is currently available, a total that would need both pitchers to be at the top of their game. And well, one of the five starts where Tarik allowed more than three earned runs came here in Houston, where he allowed four earned runs in 6.1 innings with only two strikeouts.
And Skubal was not the only southpaw to have trouble with a Houston lineup ranked fifth in baseball in wRC+ against left-handers at 115. Furthermore, that wRC+ for the Astros against lefties goes up to a hefty 121 at home.
Playoff Struggles
Similarly, Framber Valdez also had a great year that may have been Cy Young worthy in some other seasons. He finished 15-7 with a 2.91 ERA and 3.08 xFIP, and although he trailed Skubal in strikeout rate at 8.63/9, Valdez led the majors with a groundball rate of 60.6%. That is what happens when your primary pitch is a 94.4 MPH sinker with late downward movement.
But remember what we said about both pitchers needing to be at the top of their game with such a low posted total? Well, the major knock against Valdez has been his performances under playoff pressure. He was awful for the Astros last year posting a 9.00 ERA in three starts, and he has a mediocre 4.24 ERA in 18 career playoff appearances.
The Pick
So while both pitchers had great seasons, we do not think Skubal will get away unscathed against a great Houston offense against lefties, while Valdez is always a candidate to implode under pressure. This has us betting the Over at a very low number in Houston.
Predicted Score: Astros 5 – Tigers 3
MLB Pick: Over 6 (-125) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
