NFL Pick: 2023 Tennessee Titans Over 7½ Wins (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The Tennessee Titans are looking to put a devastating 7-game losing streak behind them in 2023. After losing out on another AFC South division title, the Titans are now looking up to the Jacksonville Jaguars in the division.
Many of the top-rated offshore sportsbooks have the Titans with over/under 7½ wins. They are not favored to make the playoffs in a crowded 2023 AFC, but head coach Mike Vrabel is possibly coaching for his job this year after the slide to end 2022. He could have a stronger roster than he did last year too.
Does Tennessee have enough to challenge the Jaguars, or is there a new power in the AFC South?
The Changes That Matter
The Titans have promoted passing game coordinator Tim Kelly to offensive coordinator, so that should be good for continuity. They also drafted quarterback Will Levis in the 2nd round after many thought he was going high in the draft. He will likely get a shot down the road, but to start 2023, it is still Tannehill’s job.
It is not unreasonable for the Titans to field a better team this year after adding a legitimate No. 1 receiver and getting their best pass rusher back.
Better Receivers
Tennessee’s plan to replace Brown last year was lackluster, to say the least. They signed veteran Robert Woods, who ended up leading the team with 527 yards, but he was noticeably less effective coming off an ACL injury.
The other addition was 1st-round pick Treylon Burks, who flashed some potential as a rookie. Burks does not necessarily have to be the No. 1 wideout this year, because the Titans signed DeAndre Hopkins this summer. The veteran can still make contested catches and be an asset for Tannehill. But Hopkins is past his prime, so do not expect a vintage performance from him.
Better Than Before
Still, it beats what the team had last year. There is also some hope that tight end Chigoziem Okonkwo will have a bigger role after flashing some big-play potential last season as a rookie.
We know the Titans are going to run Derrick Henry until the wheels come off. They even drafted the best guard in this class (Peter Skoronski) to improve the line. But an explosive passing game was also key to their success in 2019-21. They lack the weapons to do things at that level again, but they should be better than last year when they were still 7-3 to start the year.
Welcome Back, Harold Landry
The Titans did not use a single draft pick on a defender this year. They made some low-key additions in free agency, including defensive end Arden Key (Jaguars) and corner Sean Murphy-Bunting (Buccaneers).
But the biggest boost to the defense is from the return of Harold Landry, the team’s best pass rusher who tore his ACL just weeks before the season last year. Landry had 12 sacks in 2021, signed a big extension in March, then had to miss the entire season after getting injured in a practice.
The Titans were mediocre at best in rushing the passer without Landry last year. He may not be 100% of the player he was prior to the injury, but he will have a good shot to be the team’s best pass rusher again.
2023 Schedule Analysis and Pick
Few teams are better as underdogs than the Titans under Vrabel. Since 2018, Tennessee is 21-15 SU (.583) as an underdog of at least 3 points, the best record in the NFL and the most wins.
The Titans likely blew their shot at a Super Bowl when they were the No. 1 seed in 2021 and lost at home to Cincinnati. But when it comes to going over 7½ wins, that is still very much in Vrabel’s wheelhouse. A division title is not out of the question neither should Jacksonville, a team that had 3 comebacks of 17-plus points last year and only got by the Titans with Dobbs fumbling for a touchdown, ends up faltering.
But the division should also be helpful to the Titans. They could see 4 games against rookie quarterbacks with the Houston Texans and Colts looking to start C.J. Stroud and Anthony Richardson. With the experience on defense and likely edge with Tannehill and Henry on offense against those teams, the Titans could get halfway to an 8-9 record just in division games.
The Titans also could get a 5th game against a rookie when they host Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers in Week 12. They get the Seattle Seahawks at home late in the season (Week 16) instead of having to travel to the Pacific. They could see Baker Mayfield with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a winnable road game. Hosting the Atlanta Falcons and the wild card that is Desmond Ridder in Week 8 is another game that is winnable for the Titans.
Over or Under?
This team is not going to go 0-9 against winning teams again. The Titans will be improved on offense thanks to Hopkins and their 2022 draft class going into Year 2. The defense, with Landry back, should at least be adequate to keep most games close.
The playoffs do not look very probable, but for a team that absolutely should have won this division last year, going 8-9 with improvements at key positions is very realistic for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: 2023 Tennessee Titans Over 7½ Wins (-125) at BetOnline
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On the Last Season of “The Titans”: Sliding Right Out of the Playoffs
The 2022 Titans were always going to be shorthanded in the passing game after the curious decision to trade wide receiver A.J. Brown to the Eagles. We saw how much of an impact Brown had on the Eagles to help them reach the Super Bowl. We also saw how much the Titans missed him as no receiver finished with more than 527 yards last year.
But even after you could have buried the Titans at 0-2, Vrabel found a way to get his team on track with several 1-score wins over teams of a similar caliber. But it was an overtime loss in Kansas City that really showed how well the Titans can play as an underdog.
Falling Behind
Despite starting rookie quarterback Malik Willis and falling behind 9-0 early, the Titans led much of the game. Willis only completed 5 passes for 80 yards, but the Titans made Patrick Mahomes work for every square inch of offense in this one.
The Chiefs were still down 17-9 late in the game before tying it. Overtime was a lost cause after Willis took back-to-back sacks to bring up a 4th-and-26, but it was an impressive showing by an undermanned Titans team. The game was a reminder that the Titans give Kansas City fits better than most, and maybe this team could still be a contender when Ryan Tannehill comes back.
Where’s Ryan?
Tannehill had his best passing game of the season in Green Bay as the Titans looked explosive in a 27-17 win to get to 7-3, running away with the AFC South. Little did we know Tennessee would never win another game in 2022.
Losing another hard-fought game to Cincinnati was not that surprising. Getting crushed by Brown and the Eagles also came as no surprise. Brown had 8 catches for 119 yards and 2 touchdowns, the kind of performance no one on Tennessee was capable of anymore. That game likely was the final straw for general manager Jon Robinson, who was fired 2 days later in a rare December firing of a general manager.
But the Titans continued to spiral, losing to teams you normally think they would beat like the Jaguars and Texans. It did not help that Tannehill was injured and tried to play through it in a 17-14 loss to the Chargers. The Titans had to roll with Willis and Joshua Dobbs in the final games of the season, and it is no surprise they failed to score more than 16 points in the last month.
Salvaging the Season
But at 7-9, the Titans could have salvaged the season by beating the Jaguars in Jacksonville to win the AFC South. It was going to be tough with Dobbs at quarterback, but the defense came to play, and Derrick Henry grinded out over 100 yards that night.
But leading 16-13 and facing a 3rd down with just over 3 minutes left, Dobbs was strip-sacked, and the Jaguars returned it for a game-winning touchdown. Dobbs was unable to answer on the ensuing drive, and the Titans were eliminated with a 7-game losing streak to end the season at 7-10.
Remember the 2021 Titans
Also, you might say regression came hard for the Titans in games against winning teams. In 2021, the Titans were 8-3 (.727) against teams that finished the season with a winning record. It was the highest win percentage in NFL history (min. 9 games) and the most wins (8) in a season in NFL history against winning teams in the regular season.
But in 2022, the Titans were 0-9 against winning teams, tied for the worst record in the league over the last 8 years. Ouch.
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