NCAAF Pick: Tennessee Under 9.5 Wins (-200) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Welcome back to the ranch. It’s our privilege to bring you another season of college football betting – arguably the most important season in quite some time. The SEC won’t look the same once it’s over; Texas and Oklahoma will arrive from the Big 12, as the Power 5 conferences (or at least what remains of them) take their branding from regional to national.
The Tennessee Volunteers are not immune to these changes. Last year, the Vols were the third-best team behind Georgia and Alabama in the stacked SEC, and they were the hottest commodity on the NCAAF odds board at 10-2 SU and 9-3 ATS before squashing Clemson (-4) at the Orange Bowl. Tennessee still has what it takes to compete for the national championship, but can they compete with the raised expectations of the betting public?
Perhaps. The Vols are looking at a regular-season win total of 9.5 at Bovada, and we’ve got them pegged for nine – but before you put the Under in your NCAAF picks, consider the -200 vig attached to that bet.
That means you need to be right two-thirds of the time to break even in the long run.
Key Facts
- The tough schedule includes matchups against powerhouse teams like Alabama and Georgia.
- To exceed the win total, the Volunteers must triumph over strong opponents such as Florida, Kentucky, and Missouri.
- Personnel changes and conference realignment affecting defense, the likelihood of surpassing the win total becomes increasingly uncertain.
The Long And Winding Road
There’s a reason the juice is so high for this Under. As kind as the schedule-makers have been to Tennessee this year, they still have to face Alabama on October 21 as 9.5-point road dogs on the early NCAAF lines. And that November 18 home game against the two-time and defending national champions from Georgia (-8.5) is no picnic.
If we pencil those in as losses, Tennessee must sweep their remaining games to go Over 9.5 wins. Possible, but unlikely; they have to run the gauntlet of Florida (September 16), Kentucky (Week 9) and Missouri (Week 11) on the road.
True, the Vols are 7.5-point favorites over Florida on the NCAAF betting board as we go to press, and that should be the toughest of Tennessee’s remaining road games – but not by much, according to the preseason SP+ Rankings at ESPN:
- 4. Alabama
- 6. Tennessee
- 20. Florida
- 24. Kentucky
- 32. Missouri
Do the Math
We’ll see what happens when the lines for those other games are posted, but for now, let’s cancel out the expected losses to Georgia and Alabama, and the expected wins over Florida and Kentucky. That leaves Missouri; would you take -180 that Tennessee will fail to sweep the Tigers and every other team on their schedule?
I know I would. Let’s make Missouri a 10-point underdog for their matchup – that already gives Tennessee a 23.7% chance of losing their third game, according to Wizard of Odds, which leaves… let’s see, carry the one… about 10% worth of wiggle room for their remaining seven games. There’s no way the Vols will be chalky enough to make the +150 payout for Over 9.5 worth the risk.
Golesh Commands You
Don’t cry for Josh Heupel. Tennessee’s head coach is on top of the world after putting together the best offense in college football – according to last year’s F+ Ratings, which have moved from Football Outsiders to BCF Toys.
Alas, there’s nowhere to go but down for the 2022 SEC Coach of the Year. Heupel lost his right-hand man, offensive co-ordinator Alex Golesh, to South Florida; former QB coach Joey Halzle will probably be just fine in Golesh’s place, but like all those potential landmines in the SEC schedule, there’s a risk everything will blow up in Tennessee’s face.
Plenty More
There’s plenty more where that came from. Incoming QB Joe Milton is a compelling +2500 Heisman Trophy outsider on the NCAAF futures market, but he has some big cleats to fill in Hendon Hooker, a top Heisman candidate last year until he got hurt.
On top of that, OT Darnell Wright (No. 10, Chicago Bears), WR Jalin Hyatt (No. 73, New York Giants) and WR Cedric Tillman (No. 74, Cleveland Browns) all have to be replaced after turning pro. Heupel has ample talent in the pipeline – it’s the Tennessee Volunteers, and it’s the SEC – but expect some slippage on offense nonetheless.
The Pick
Tennessee’s defense (No. 27 on last year’s F+ charts) is the bigger concern, and go figure, conference realignment is partly to blame. The Vols lost tackle Da’Jon Terry to Oklahoma through the transfer portal, putting even more pressure on Heupel to replenish a defense that has lost several key parts at all three levels on the field.
Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you all season long.
NCAAF Pick: Tennessee Under 9.5 Wins (-200) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product
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