Is Serena Williams a Value Bet at the US Open?

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Serena Williams returns a shot to Emma Raducanu of Great Britain during the Western & Southern Open. Matthew Stockman/Getty Images/AFP.

Serena Williams will play her final tennis tournament at this year’s US Open. Is there value in the all-time great to make one final swan song run?

Let’s take a look at the WTA odds and see if this is a wise tennis pick.

Serena Williams (+5000)

At 50 to 1 odds, many punters will be tempted at taking a shot at one of the greatest players to ever pick up a racket,  Serena Williams. However, the top-rated sportsbooks have put this price so high for a reason.

Serena Williams has only played in four tournaments this year and has only won one match. In her most recent outing, she was “bageled” by Emma Raducanu in a 6-4, 6-0 loss. Simply put, the once great player is no longer at the top of the WTA hill.

Serena’s Starting Point

Serena Williams’s first match this season was at Wimbledon. She fell to the world number 111 Harmony Tan there. She showed flashes of brilliance but she was not able to keep up with Tan, who is a quite ordinary WTA level player.

In her prime, Serena would have won this match and barely lost a few games within it. This was our first sign that the end was near for the all-time great.

Williams vs. Parrizas-Diaz

She won her second match of the season in Toronto against Nuria Parrizas-Diaz. Parrizas-Diaz is having a good season, but she is a clay courter through and through.

For Williams to beat her on the hard court in Toronto is no great feat and does not necessarily portend success for her here at the US Open.

Williams vs. Bencic

This was never more obvious than in the next round when Belinda Bencic handily defeated her, 6-2, 6-4.

The world number 13 from Switzerland was never in trouble during the match and was in complete control from start to finish. Top players are not going to struggle with Williams in her current form.

Serena William’s Overview

While we may be tempted at such a huge price to bet on Serena Williams, the simple fact is while this would be a great story, and Williams has had a great career, you should not bet on Serena Williams to win the US Open.

New Serena on the Court: Coco Gauff

If you do want to place a storyline-based wager you do have a good option, however. Why not bet the heir apparent to Williams’s throne as the greatest American player and that is Coco Gauff?

At 14 to 1, Coco Gauff gives you a great opportunity to make a storyline-based wager. If Gauff were to win the US Open when it was Williams’s last tournament, the torch would be passed, so to speak.

The Start of an Era

The end of Williams’s dominance could mark the beginning of Gauff’s dominance. Coco Gauff has all the tools to be a top player for the next 15 years. She also has the Williams sisters’ bubbly exuberance, elite athleticism, and dedication to the sport of tennis.

Coco Gauff made the quarterfinals in Toronto, where she fell to world number 7 Simona Halep. This is not a bad loss and it displayed that Gauff is ready to compete at the top level, as I consider Halep a top contender for the US Open title, as well.

Falling to the former Grand Slam Champion is no disgrace, and she displayed that she can play with anyone. She lost 6-4, 7-6, and if a couple of points had gone the other way, the match would have been hers. Gauff is standing on the doorstep of greatness and knocking on the door.

Coco Gauff’s Overview

One of the reasons Coco Gauff’s odds are a little lower is that she sprained an ankle in her loss against Marie Bouzkova in Cincinnati. Still, Gauff is young and will have had two weeks off before the US Open begins, plus a day in between matches.

I believe this injury did nothing but increase the value on Coco Gauff to lift the trophy. The uncertainty around her ankle has limited the amount of tennis bets coming in, and we still get a great price at 14 to 1.

Long Story Short

Instead of batting on the swan song story, you should bet on the story of the passing of the torch. Serena Williams’s exit at the same tournament as Coco Gauff’s emergence would be a story for the ages.

While it may be fun for fans of Serena Williams to bet on her to win the trophy one last time, all good things must come to an end. But there is always a new beginning and that new beginning is Coco Gauff.

WTA Pick: Coco Gauff to Win the US Open (+1400) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.