Will We Have a “Russian Repeat” at the US Open?

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Daniil Medvedev of Russia plays a backhand during his match against Stefanos Tsitsipas of Greece. Dylan Buell/Getty Images/AFP

With Novak Djokovic out of the US Open, is the door wide open for Daniil Medvedev to repeat as champion? The Top-rated sportsbooks certainly believe so as he is the current favorite to win the US Open.

Let’s take a look at the ATP odds to find the best values to win the US Open.

US Open 2022

Monday, August 29, 2022 – Sunday, September 11, 2022
USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center

Daniil Medvedev (+200)

Daniil Medvedev as a Strong Contestant

Daniil Medvedev secured his first Grand Slam title and established himself as one of the best hardcourt players in the world by winning the US Open last season.

Medvedev had a fairly tame path to the title, defeating Botic van de Zandschulp in the quarterfinals, and Felix Auger-Aliassime in the semifinals. He then faced the best hardcourt player in the world, Novak Djokovic.

By defeating Djokovic in the final last season, Daniil Medvedev proved he is one of the world’s top players. He has held on to the world’s number one ranking and will be defending those points this season. Medvedev was average, not elite, in the run-up to the US Open this season.

Is It Safe to Bet on Him for the Tournament?

He won the Los Cabos tournament to start the month of August, but then he fell in the first round to Nick Kyrgios in Montreal. He recorded three solid wins in Cincinnati, before falling to Stefanos Tsitsipas.

While Medvedev has not been extremely dominant, it is safe to say that he comes into the tournament in relatively good form.

A bet on Daniil Medvedev is a nice anchor to your US Open portfolio. You can wager a higher amount on Medvedev and then take a shot at a few longshots at lower odds and still be profitable if he wins the title.

Medvedev has been the top young player to emerge out of the shadow of the “Big Three”, and he is definitely worth a wager at this price.

Rafael Nadal (+475)

Nadal on a Bad Strike

Rafael Nadal is arguably the best tennis player on the field. However, questions around his fitness and injury status preclude him from being the odds-on favorite.

Nadal has struggled with injuries all season. When he was fully healthy, he has been dominant, winning hardcourt tournaments like the Australian Open and reaching Indian Wells final.

In his first match back after Wimbledon, he lost to Borna Coric in three sets. That loss doesn’t look so bad as Coric went on to win the title in Cincinnati.

Is Skill Enough?

Nadal definitely has the skill and ability to win the tournament. The question is, do you trust his health? I’m not ready to lay these small odds. Nadal will have to navigate a tricky draw and we can’t count on him being fully healthy.

Although Nadal can certainly win the title at these odds, this is not a prudent bet to make, and I will avoid having an outright bet on Rafael Nadal.

Taylor Fritz (+2000)

Open Possibilities for Fritz

Now we’re into the long shots that I feel are worth a stab. Taylor Fritz has a great chance to really make a mark here. Fritz has finally been finding consistency this season and has all the tools to win this tournament.

He’s had an interesting run-up to the US Open on hard courts, falling to Dan Evans in Montreal, which definitely was a disappointing loss for Fritz. That was a match he should have won.

In Cincinnati, he lost to Medvedev, which is not a shameful loss at all. It could also be a potential rematch here and a match that Fritz will need to win if he’s going to lift the title.

Fritz was alive to win as an underdog in that match and I’m getting his odds at 20 to one here.

Are Slow Hardcourts His Signature?

Fritz won the tournament in Indian Wells this season, where the slow hard court play is very similar to the slower hard courts in New York.

When looking for a long shot to add to your US Open outright portfolio, Taylor Fritz must be considered and I will have a piece.

Hubert Hurkacz (+4000)

Hubert Hurkacz has all the tools to be one of the top players in the world, but he just struggles with the mental aspect of the game and consistency at certain points.

Hurkacz was set for a great run at Wimbledon and then had a disappointing first-round loss to Alejandro Davidovich Fokina. He’s followed that up with a mediocre run in the North American hardcourt swing.

Consistency Is Always a Plus

Hurkacz played well in Montreal, defeating big names such as Nick Kyrgios and Casper Ruud, before falling to Pablo Carreno Busta.

Yet once again, he failed to put together consistent performances and had a disappointing loss to John Isner in the first round at Cincinnati.

To be fair, Isner on a quick hard court is a tough task for anyone, but still, I’m sure that’s a match that Hurkacz and his team believe they should have won. Now they will tackle the slower courts of the US Open.

Is Hurkacz Enough for the US Open?

Even on slower courts, Hurkacz will still be formidable. His serve will still be dominant and he will be tough to break. It will be important for him to be aggressive on return and to play at a consistent level throughout each match.

The dips in level of play that have plagued him for so long are the last hill that he needs to climb in order to become a consistent top player in the world.

Hurkacz has all the tools, and at 40 to one he is an excellent “dark horse” candidate for our tennis picks. The great thing about these long shots is if he just gets to the quarterfinals, you can hedge and make a profit on this wager.

Hubert Hurkacz definitely has the talent and is worth a shot at this number.

ATP Picks

Following the ATP odds, here are our top picks for the US Open.

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Daniil Medvedev (+200)
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ATP Pick: Taylor Fritz (+2000) [.25 units] at Bookmaker

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Taylor Fritz (+2000)
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ATP Pick: Hubert Hurkacz (+4000) [.25 units] at Bookmaker

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Hubert Hurkacz (+4000)
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