MLB Pick: Royals ML (+111) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have a full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday, with all games in the afternoon this last day before the All-Star break. We went 2-1 at top-rated sportsbooks including a +133 winner on Friday and we are back with a play we feel has the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side at the Royals vs. Red Sox matchup on Sunday.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Kansas City Royals vs. Boston Red Sox
Sunday, July 14, 2024 – 01:35 PM ET at Fenway Park
Brady Singer of the Royals has regained his fine form, and we are backing him at an underdog price on Sunday visiting Brayon Bello and the Red Sox.
Great Current Form
Singer went through a bit of a “dead arm” period last month when he struggled through a few outings while lacking velocity and movement. But to say he has recovered well since then would be a huge understatement as he has allowed exactly one run in each of his last four starts while allowing only 17 hits over 24.1 innings!
This has allowed Brady to even his record at 5-5, while lowering his ERA to a spiffy 2.93 and his once high xFIP all the way down to 3.60. That ERA ranks 10th best in the majors, and he has also raised his swinging-strike rate to a career-high 10.2% while maintaining an excellent groundball rate of 50.0%. That combination will win you a lot of games, and those wins should start to pile up now that Singer has regained his form.
Too Inconsistent
Bello has shown a few flashes of brilliance since coming to the majors in 2022, but he has been mostly erratic, which has limited his upside. This season is no exception despite his 9-5 record, as that comes with a lofty 5.40 ERA, which is the fifth worst in the Major Leagues among pitchers with at least 80 innings pitched.
Yes, Brayan has a nice strikeout rate of 8.86/9, but his walk rate is up to 3.46/9 from 2.58/9 last season. He has allowed less than four earned runs just twice in his last seven starts, including last time out when he surrendered five runs on nine hits while lasting only 5.1 innings.
The Pick
So, not only is Singer in the superior current form between these pitchers, but we also rate him as the better pitcher than Bello overall despite the W/L records. Therefore, we are betting on the Royals as road underdogs on Sunday.
Predicted Score: Royals 5 – Red Sox 4
MLB Pick: Royals ML (+111) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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