MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+212) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Sunday, with all games in the afternoon this last day before the All-Star break. We went 2-1 at top-rated sportsbooks including a +133 winner on Friday and we are back with a play we feel has the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Sunday comes at the City of Brotherly Love, where our model likes a side when the Athletics visit the Phillies.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Oakland Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Sunday, July 14, 2024 – 01:35 PM ET at Citizens Bank Park
We foresee an upset and are betting on Joey Estes and the Athletics at a humongous price in Philadelphia, with Michael Mercado expected to follow an opener for the Phillies.
Not at This Price
Now, there is obviously no doubt that the Phillies are the much better team here, as they have the best record in baseball while the A’s are last in the AL West. However, with Mercado scheduled to follow opener Orion Kerkering, we simply do not feel he deserves to be such a huge favorite regardless of the opponent.
Michael has made two starts as a rookie and he has greatly underwhelmed, lasting just a total of 7.2 innings while posting a 7.04 ERA and 6.05 xFIP, with almost as many walks (5) as strikeouts (6). And remember that while Mercado had a 1.71 ERA at the AAA level when he was recalled, he also had a 5.35 xFIP mainly due to bad command with a walk rate of 4.37/9.
Capable Enough for Big Dog
Now, Estes is not exactly a stud himself at 3-4 with a 5.53 ERA and 4.94 xFIP. However, those figures are still better than Mercado. At least Estes has had some nice moments at the big-league level while Mercado has yet to do anything.
Granted Joey was lit up for eight runs in just 1.2 innings last time out. However, he tossed a Complete Game shutout his start before that. He allowed exactly two runs in each of his two starts before that. Previous to his last stinker, he had begun to work his slider in more in the three preceding excellent starts. A slider rated an outstanding 128 on Stuff+. He never got the chance to work it in last time lasting only 1.2 innings, but a better start today should allow him to show it off more.
The Pick
We think that slider gives Estes great upside, not just today but for the rest of the season. Add in Mercado doing nothing in the Major Leagues so far and back the Athletics as big dogs.
Predicted Score: Athletics 6 – Phillies 5
MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+212) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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