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Reds vs. Brewers MLB Best Bet: Not Too Many Markers in Milwaukee
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LT Profits
- August 9, 2024
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MLB Pick: Under 9 (-121) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We enter Friday’s full slate of MLB betting matchups 21-12 in our last 33 plays including another winning 2-1 Wednesday. We return today with three plays from top sportsbooks with great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Friday comes in the Badger State, where our model likes a total when the Reds visit the Brewers.
Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, August 09, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at American Family Field
Pitching Well as Starter
We see a sneaky pitching duel and are thus betting the Under in Milwaukee when the promising Carson Spiers and the Reds pay a visit to Aaron Civale and the Brewers.
Carson Spiers comes in at 4-3 with a 3.59 ERA and 4.18 xFIP, but those numbers do not tell the full story. You see, Spiers began the year in the bullpen before making his first start on June 17th, and he has pitched well enough in those starts to stick in the rotation and will most likely remain a starter for years to come.
Carson has now made seven starts and he allowed three earned runs or less in five of them as well as exactly four earned runs in the other two outings. He has also maintained a nice command ratio with the increased workload, with a K/BB of 8.22/1.64 per nine innings as a starter only. He also has a good 20.5% soft-contact rate over his seven starts
Spiers has a very nice arsenal with five different pitches that he has thrown over 14% of the time, highlighted by a wipeout slider with an outstanding grading on Stuff+ of 129.
Good Bullpen Helps
Aaron Civale is only 2-8 with a 5.14 ERA and 4.24 xFIP overall this season, but much of that was with the Tampa Bay Rays before the Brewers acquired him in a trade. He has been a bit better while allowing three earned runs or less in three of his five starts in a Milwaukee uniform with an improved strikeout rate in his first taste of the National League of 8.64/9.
It also helps that Aaron is facing a disappointing Cincinnati offense that had high hopes entering the year, but instead ranks just 23rd in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at 92, a figure that dips a bit further to 89 on the road. Civale also has the support of a very good Brewers’ bullpen that ranks third in the majors in ERA at 3.31 over a nice sampling of 467.2 innings, making it also the third most worked pen in the league.
The Pick
That Milwaukee bullpen limits the damage when the Brewers get to the backend of their rotation. Add in the nice development of Spiers as a starter and we are backing the Under on Friday.
Predicted Score: Brewers 4 – Reds 3
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-121) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
