Red Sox vs. Orioles MLB Best Bet: Baltimore Brings Home the Bacon

A win behind the mighty New York Yankees in the AL East race, the Baltimore Orioles pop the top Thursday on a long weekend home series with the Boston Red Sox looking to knot up baseball’s best division battle going.

Boston sends Nick Pivetta (5-7, 4.44) to the Camden bump opposite Baltimore’s Zach Eflin (8-7, 3.83), and Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review) started the proceedings with the Orioles on a -140 overnight moneyline.

Pivetta Working on 11 Days Rest

The home run ball cost Pivetta a shot at his sixth win the last time out. He only gave up 2 hits to the Rangers 11 days ago in Arlington, but both left the yard and the Canadian was yanked with an out to go in the fifth to leave him short of qualifying for the dubya in the 7-2 Boston final.

Pivetta also served up a couple of long balls in both his starts before then, one of those assignments taking place in Denver, and Boston decided to skip him the last time through the rotation in order to rest the right elbow that cost him about 4 weeks on the IL earlier this year.

The 31-year-old righthander missed the Orioles when the clubs matched up twice before this season, and Pivetta missed a lot of bats in his lone start against them last year. It was Pivetta’s final trip to the mound in 2023, and he made it a good one with 7 innings of 2-hit, 10-K, shutout baseball at Camden Yards.

Eflin Perfect For O’s Since Trade

Acquired from the Tampa Bay Rays for three minor leaguers at the deadline, Eflin has so far proven to be an excellent pickup for Brandon Hyde and the Orioles. All three of his trips to the mound in an Orioles jersey have gone into the win column, two of those efforts following a Baltimore loss.

Eflin was outstanding last week in a win over his former Rays teammates down at Tropicana Field. Closing as -135 chalk at top sportsbooks, the Floridian delivered 7 shutout innings while allowing just 4 hits and striking out 7 in a 4-1 Orioles victory.

He faced the Red Sox at Fenway Park earlier this season while still with the Rays, and managed to get the win thanks to solid relief pitching behind him in a 5-3 Tampa Bay triumph. Rafael Devers is 6-13 lifetime vs. Eflin, with a pair of long flies for good measure.

Season Series & Rivalry Trends

It has been close to three months since the Red Sox and Orioles last got together, and Boston is hopeful that manager Alex Cora has used that time to come up with a plan to beat Baltimore after five of the first six matchups this season went to the Charm City crew.

And it’s not just a case of Baltimore winning 5 of the 6 clashes, but the fact the Orioles have thoroughly dominated the Red Sox by almost a 2:1 margin on the scoreboard. Baltimore outscored Boston 43-22 in those contests, leading to a 4-0-2 O/U/P mark in the totals column.

It was a very level rivalry last season when Baltimore took 7 of the 13, and 4 of the 7 played at Camden Yards. The ‘over’ still dominated by cashing 8 of the 13 matchups, but that domination was geographical in nature, with all 6 games at Fenway going past the MLB odds.

Boston’s lone win over the Orioles this season did come in Baltimore, and the Red Sox have been a much better team on the road than at home. They just finished a 4-2 road trip at the Rangers and Royals, and are 9-3 on the road vs. AL East teams in 2024.

The Pick

Boston needs all of the good road fortunes to continue as it begins a weeklong road trip that concludes with a stop in Houston next week. The Red Sox are realistically still in the AL East race, but more pressing is their 2-game deficit in the AL Wild Card chase.

Baltimore, meanwhile, is watching a New York team on a roll – NYY 12-5 last 17 – and has to remain as tight with the Yankees as possible. That means winning at least 3 of 4 from the Red Sox this weekend.

The Orioles should get off to a good start toward reaching that goal with a win on Thursday. Go with Eflin and the O’s for the winning pick in Thursday’s opener when Baltimore brings home a 4-2 triumph.

MLB Pick: Orioles ML (-140) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Orioles ML (-140)

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