Ravens vs. Chiefs Thursday Night Football Picks: Will Ravens Ride Derrick Henry?

Player Prop: King Henry vs. Stingy Kansas City Defense

In January, the Ravens seemingly learned very little about why Buffalo was successful, for 3 quarters anyway, against a stingy Kansas City defense that never allowed more than 27 points in any game last year.

Buffalo used a lot of runs, including quarterback (Josh Allen) runs, to go along with very short, quick completions to cancel out some of the pass rush and not challenge those corners (namely L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie) as much. Use your running backs.

The Ravens, who are usually a run-heavy offense, ended up giving their running backs 6 carries for 23 yards while Lamar Jackson touched the ball on 49 out of 57 snaps. That’s an absurd rate in a 17-10 game where Baltimore never trailed by more than 10 points.

They threw at those corners 13 times, and Sneed made the play of the game when he forced Zay Flowers to fumble at the 1-yard line in the 4th quarter.

Sneed was dealt to Tennessee, but you should still expect a different look this week with the Ravens now having Derrick Henry in the backfield. They let J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards to go, Keaton Mitchell is still injured, and Justice Hill is the primary backup to King Henry, who should see plenty of carries in this game.

His over/under for rushing yards is 64.5, but we’re going to be skeptical that the Ravens have enough success running him to get there with ease. We’re also acknowledging that maybe it would be wise to fake the Chiefs out and not run the ball much with Henry since that’s exactly what the Chiefs are expecting to happen. Save the classic Henry ground game for January and the playoffs when the season is on the line.

With that said, our favorite Derrick Henry prop is for him to find the end zone in his Baltimore debut. Last year, Edwards had 13 of the team’s 26 rushing touchdowns and was money from inside 3 yards. They usually don’t run Lamar on those that much like some other teams (Eagles, Bills) do.

So, we’ll count on Henry to score in his Baltimore debut.

NFL Pick: Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Derrick Henry (-126) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline  Review)

Anytime Touchdown Scorer – Derrick Henry (-126)

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Player Prop: Patrick Mahomes vs. New Defensive Coordinator

The 2023 Ravens made history by becoming the only defense since the 1970 merger to lead the NFL in points, sacks, and takeaways. While they held Mahomes to 17 points, including a 2nd-half shutout, they didn’t get any takeaways, and they only notched 2 sacks.

Now Baltimore has to get by without defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald, the new coach of the Seahawks. They have a new defensive coordinator in Zach Orr, who has been an assistant with the team for years, but this will be his 1st real game as an NFL defensive coordinator, and what a tough matchup on the road against Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and the Chiefs.

Historically, Mahomes has roasted the Ravens in his career with over 340 passing yards in all 4 regular-season matchups. He was held to 241 yards and 1 touchdown pass in January, but he still had 30 completions on the road as the Chiefs will always trust him to put the ball in his hands in big games.

We like Mahomes to hit a lot of completions in this one too as he utilizes Kelce and more short throws to Rashee Rice, who had 8 catches for 46 yards in January.

You can also bet on Mahomes to throw over 1.5 touchdowns, but our preferred bet with a better value is for over 25.5 completions.

NFL Pick: Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Pass Completions (-124) at BetOnline

Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Pass Completions (-124)

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Player Prop: Rookie Watch with Xavier Worthy

The Chiefs have a shiny new weapon in first-round receiver Xavier Worthy from Texas, who made headlines in February when he ran the 40-yard dash in a record 4.21 seconds.

Giving the Chiefs this much speed can be dangerous, and we like them to find a way to show it off in Week 1 with either a long bomb or some kind of schemed YAC play to get Worthy a huge gain where he can show off his speed.

We know Kelce and Rice will see their share of the ball, but Hollywood Brown was the Chiefs’ big signing of a veteran wideout, and he is out in Week 1 with an injury. So, you should expect to see Worthy get his share of playing time and hit his over in receiving yards.

NFL Pick: Xavier Worthy Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetOnline

Xavier Worthy Over 44.5 Receiving Yards (-115)

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Player Prop: Zay Flowers’ Revenge Game

He unfortunately had the ball punched out at the 1, but rookie Zay Flowers played a great game in January with 5 catches for 115 yards and the offense’s only touchdown.

Look for Flowers to make up for his mistake with another big game against this defense, which lost top corner L’Jarius Sneed to the Titans.

Flowers went over 52.5 yards in 10-of-18 games last year, including in 7-of-10 games where the Ravens allowed at least 17 points. The Chiefs are not getting blown out here, so expect the Ravens to have to throw to put up more points, and Flowers is their No. 1 receiver.

He’s also no longer a rookie.

NFL Pick: Zay Flowers Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-121) at BetOnline

Zay Flowers Over 52.5 Receiving Yards (-121)

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Ravens vs. Chiefs: O/U 46.5 Points

The Ravens and Chiefs were the top 2 scoring defenses in 2023, so it was not that surprising to see their playoff matchup finish with a low score.

But it should be expected for both defenses to take a little step back in 2024. That doesn’t mean they won’t be any good on defense, because we know the Ravens have largely been great on defense for over 2 decades. But is No. 1 in the league good again? That’s hard to do, and we already acknowledged the loss of a very good coordinator in Macdonald.

But the Chiefs also lost Sneed, and they don’t have the same track record as Baltimore on defense. They could still be a top-10 unit, but I wouldn’t expect keeping every opponent under 28 points this year again.

That doesn’t mean Baltimore is dropping 28 this Thursday, but it feels like a game where both teams should get into the 20s this time. Remember, Lamar is a prolific scoring starter in the regular season. It’s the playoffs where he always leads the Ravens to a season-low in points. Give him Henry, take Sneed out of the defense, and look for the Ravens to score over 20 points here.

We also know the Chiefs are very comfortable at playing John Harbaugh’s team and defenses, and Reid will usually have some new wrinkles ready to go in Week 1. They also have better team speed at receiver, and like Flowers, Rashee Rice is no longer a rookie as he settles into his No. 1 wide receiver role.

This is also just a gut pick where the theme this year should be more scoring after the under has been profitable in 3 straight NFL seasons as scoring and yardage have dropped 3 years in a row for only the 2nd time since 1970.

Don’t forget the new dynamic kickoff rule, which could lead to better field position, which leads to more points. The Ravens and Chiefs are usually elite on special teams, so they should be ready for that this week. They also have arguably the 2 best kickers in the NFL in Justin Tucker and Harrison Butker, so if there are kicks on Thursday night, they should go in.

We’ll take the over – think a 27-24 classic – to start what will hopefully be a season of more overs and scoring in the NFL.

NFL Pick: Over 46.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Over 46.5 (-110)

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Ravens vs. Chiefs (-3): Who Covers the Spread?

The NFL oddsmakers see this as a playoff preview given no teams in the AFC have higher odds than the Chiefs and Ravens to win Super Bowl LIX. The winner of this game will already get the inside track to a potential No. 1 seed. We know that doesn’t guarantee anything in January, but it’s still desirable.

Banner night at home to kick off a season isn’t an automatic winning night for the Chiefs as last year showed when they lost 21-20 to Detroit. They did have to play that game without Travis Kelce (injured) and Chris Jones (holdout), and Kadarius Toney’s drops caused at least a 10-point swing. Kelce and Jones are good to go, and Toney was rightfully cut this month.

But while the Chiefs are a dynasty, there is one split you can find since 2018 where they have a losing record. The Chiefs are 1-5 in home games played at night in the regular season against teams that make the playoffs that year.

It’s a little contrived, but it’s not that much of a reach. It’s just a prime-time game at home between teams that both make the playoffs that year. In fact, since 2021, home teams who are NFL odds favorites or an underdog of 2.5 points or better in such games are just 8-23 ATS (25.8%) and 15-16 SU. Those home teams are also just 17-38-1 ATS (31.3%) since 2018.

The Chiefs lost both such games last year at home to the Lions and Eagles. We expect the Ravens to be a playoff team again this year, and it wouldn’t be that shocking to see them win the game outright. Again, it’s the regular season. The playoffs are where you trust Kansas City and fade Baltimore.

We mentioned 27-24 above, which just so happened to be the overtime score in the 1st meeting between Jackson and Mahomes way back in 2018, a game the Chiefs needed a late touchdown to force overtime. A push is also more probable in a 3-point spread between a couple of elite teams.

But we are going to roll the dice and back the Ravens with the points for your NFL picks to start what should be an exciting season. Remember, even if the Ravens win this game in Week 1, they’ll still be doubted in January when they have to prove they can do it with the season on the line.

NFL Pick: Ravens +3 (-120) at Bovada

Ravens +3 (-120)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.