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Rangers vs. Yankees MLB Best Bet: Texas Lassos Upset in the Bronx
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LT Profits
- August 9, 2024
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MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+149) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are 21-12 in our last 33 plays entering Friday’s full card of MLB betting matchups after another winning 2-1 Wednesday. We are back today with the three plays from top sportsbooks we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in the Bronx in the Rangers vs. Yankees matchup Friday.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Athletics vs. Blue Jays and Padres vs. Marlins games.
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees
Friday, August 09, 2024 – 07:05 PM ET at Yankee Stadium
Ready to Break Out?
Cody Bradford of the Rangers appeared on his way to a breakout season before fracturing his rib in April. Now back and healthy, he gets our upset call Friday visiting Carlos Rodon and the Yankees.
Bradford was expected to improve in his second Major League season after a rookie year where he demonstrated nice command with a K/BB ratio of 8.20/1.93 per nine innings. And that breakout appeared to be in progress when he opened the season by allowing a total of three earned runs in three starts before being sidelined by a rib injury.
He made his return start last Saturday and was on a pitch count while allowing three runs in 3.2 innings. The good news though is he still had five strikeouts in the shortened outing, and he has an even better K/BB for the season than last year, currently at 8.64/1.44 per nine innings. Cody is not a hard thrower at only 90.4 MPH. but he relies on an excellent cutter with a Stuff+ of 104 that makes the fastball play a bit faster.
Best of all, he should now be sufficiently stretched out for a normal workload tonight.
Good Form but Overpriced?
Now, we admit that Rodon is in very good current form while now being fully healthy for the first time since the Yankees signed him last year. His strikeout rate is up to 9.81/9, and he has allowed three runs or less in five of his last six starts. However, this price seems to be factoring in too much of that recency bias.
You see, while Carlos is 12-7 for the whole season, he is still sporting just a 4.37 ERA and 4.22 WHIP. He also combines a low groundball rate of 32.2% with a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 13.9% / 31.8%, which is never a good sign. His strikeout rate has helped him escape jams, but he is facing a disciplined Texas lineup here that is in the bottom third of the league (23rd) in offensive strikeout rate at 20.7%.
The Pick
We are betting on Bradford to return to his pre-injury April form tonight. And we expect the Texas offense to generate enough runs against Rodon to get the win at a very nice price in the Bronx.
Predicted Score: Rangers 4 – Yankees 3
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+149) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
