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Phillies vs. Mariners MLB Best Bet: Seattle to Woo Phillips at Home
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LT Profits
- August 2, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-113) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We enter Friday’s full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups 16-8 in our last 24 plays, and we return to the top-rated sportsbooks with three plays that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in the Emerald City Friday with the Phillies visiting the Mariners.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, August 02, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
We are not real believers in the terrific start by Tyler Phillips of the Phillies, so we are fading him on the road Friday by backing Bryan Woo and the Mariners in Seattle.
Very Lucky
Phillips is finally getting his first taste of the Major Leagues after spending eight years in the minor leagues, and he looks like a nice story on the surface. After all, he is 3-0 with a spiffy 1.80 ERA in four appearances (three starts) covering 25 innings. But before punching those Rookie of the Year tickets, remember that Phillips is not a top prospect and there is a reason he was in the minors so long.
To say the already 26-year-old has been lucky in his rookie season would be an understatement. And we mean lucky in the statistical sense, as he has an outrageous .215 BABIP allowed and 94.6% strand rate! Tyler was never a big strikeout guy in the minors and that rate is only 6.84/9 in the majors.
He is not a particularly hard thrower at 92.7 MPH, so his ERA should balloon once his Luck stats normalize.
Good When Able to Pitch
Woo has had an injury-plagued season already with two stints on the injured list, and now he experienced discomfort in his hamstring in his last start Saturday. He did manage to pitch through that by not allowing an earned run through four innings before getting pulled, and more importantly he has been cleared to take this start tonight.
That is good news as Bryan has pitched well this year when he has made it to the mound, going 4-1 with a 2.35 ERA over 53.2 innings. He is a contact pitcher with a low walk rate of 1.01/9 but also a low strikeout rate of 6.20/9. However, he has done a good job of missing barrels, with a very good soft/hard contact ratio of 14.7% / 23.3%, to go along with a 41.3% groundball rate.
The Pick
The bottom line here is that we trust a healthy Woo to pitch well, which he apparently is to take this start, while Phillips is a prime candidate for negative regression. Therefore, bet the Mariners at a cheap price at home.
Predicted Score: Mariners 4 – Phillies 2
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-113) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
