Phillies vs. Dodgers MLB Best Bet: Follow Sharp Under in L.A.

Sharp Play

It’s one of the oldest adages in sports betting: Early money is sharp money. So when we looked at Tuesday’s game between the Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers here at the home office, we couldn’t help but notice Under 8.5 was a fashionable pick, driving the total down to eight runs on the MLB odds board.

Here we are not too long after the open, and the total is already back up to 8.5 runs at Heritage Sportsbook. We’ve already determined that none of Tuesday’s moneylines have enough betting value attached; let’s see if the sharps were on the right track with their Phillies-Dodgers pick.

Who’s Pitching for the Phillies?

Say hello to Cristopher Sanchez (3.19 xFIP). The fourth-year lefty has taken his game to another level in 2024, after making good progress last year in his first full season as a major-league starter. However, the Phillies are only 10-11 behind Sanchez (Under 10-9-2) for a loss of 4.29 betting units.

It’s almost as if Philadelphia’s hitters take it easy knowing they’ve got a talented arm on the mound. The Under is 8-4 for Sanchez since late May; Philly scored three runs or fewer in six of those games, and when they faced the Dodgers at home on July 10, they eked out a 4-3 victory (Under 9) with Sanchez going six strong.

Sure enough, those bats have gotten pretty quiet lately. The Phillies rank seventh overall in hitting WAR (Wins Above Replacement) at FanGraphs, but fall to No. 20 this past month. This is despite enjoying relatively good health at the plate. So far, so good for our baseball picks.

Who’s Pitching for the Dodgers?

Here’s a name you might recognize: Clayton Kershaw. The three-time National League Cy Young winner just made his 2024 debut two weeks ago, after offseason surgery on his left shoulder (Kershaw is also a southpaw), and the results have been mixed thus far:

• July 25 (vs. San Francisco): two ER, six hits, 72 pitches in four innings
• July 31 (at San Diego): three ER, six hits, 83 pitches in 3.2 innings

Unfortunately for Kershaw and the Dodgers, they also coughed up four unearned runs in their 8-1 loss to the Padres (Over 7). And they ended up beating the Giants 6-4 (Over 8). Kershaw’s 4.93 xFIP through two starts would easily be his worst-ever if he continues at this rate.

We’re betting otherwise. He might be 36 now, and already showing signs of decline last year at 3.57 xFIP, but Kershaw is just getting his sea legs after a long stay on the injured list. He’ll probably be fine, and he’s got the No. 11-ranked bullpen in FanGraphs WAR to back him up (Philly ranks third in the majors in that department).

How’s the Weather?

Nicer than we’d like for our purposes. Tuesday’s forecast for Chavez Ravine is 80 degrees and mostly sunny skies, with 10-mph winds blowing out towards center-right.

At least we’re still on the West Coast. The Dodgers may have the No. 3-ranked team in hitting WAR (No. 17 over the past 30 days) at FanGraphs, but Dodger Stadium only ranks No. 20 in park factor at Baseball Savant, with a 99 index overall. You’re getting more home runs than usual at 122, but also fewer singles (91) and far fewer triples (71).

Given the way both these teams have forgotten how to hit, it’s easy to see why the sharps were pounding the Under when the baseball odds first opened. Make it a smaller bet given the weather and the uncertainty with Kershaw, and may the sphere be with you.

MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at Heritage Sports

Under 8.5 (-115)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.