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Phillies vs. Diamondbacks MLB Best Bet: Arizona to Corral Win at Home
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LT Profits
- August 9, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+136) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We are currently on a 21-12 run in our last 33 plays entering Friday’s slate of MLB betting matchups after a 2-1 Wednesday. As usual, we have three more best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel hold great value.
These best bets and current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in the desert on Friday with the Phillies visiting the Diamondbacks.
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Athletics vs. Blue Jays and Padres vs. Marlins games.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Friday, August 09, 2024 – 09:40 PM ET at Chase Field
Rising in Standings
This is a matchup between the hottest team in baseball and the team with the best record in the Major Leagues. We are backing the hot team in the Diamondbacks as decided home underdogs with Ryne Nelson on the hill hosting Zack Wheeler and the first-place Phillies.
Do not look now, but after a poor start, the defending National League champion Diamondbacks had moved up to the second wild card spot in the NL, one game behind the first wild card San Diego. Furthermore, Arizona is now just 3.5 games behind the Dodgers in the NL West thanks to going 8-2 in the last 10 games, the best 10-game streak in the majors right now.
They hope to keep things going with Ryne Nelson, who admittedly does not enter with great frontline numbers at 8-6 with a 4.65 ERA and 4.35 xFIP. However, he has been much better as of late allowing three earned runs or less in four of his last six starts with a 3.13 ERA and 3.61 xFIP over those efforts. He has even seen an uptick in strikeouts to 8.92/9 in those outings.
Ryne has three Plus Rated pitches on Stuff+ in his fastball (101), slider (109), and change-up (105) and he could take advantage of the Phillies not yet facing him this season.
Great Pitcher, Bad Price
Now, we have nothing against Zack Wheeler here other than his price on the road facing a hot team. After all, he is 11-5 while ranking fifth in the majors in ERA at 2.77, although he lags a bit behind in xFIP in 21st at 3.53. That xFIP reflects Wheeler being a bit lucky with a .237 BABIP allowed. Then again, he is not allowing a ton of contact with his strikeout rate at 9.75/9.
Still, he is facing a hot offense here. Arizona has a very good wRC+ vs. right-handers for the season at 109, but that figure is an astronomical 141 since July 1st, second during this time behind only the Red Sox (143). Moreover, the Snakes are also second in the league in OPS against righties during this time at a whopping .887.
The Pick
Therefore, we are betting on the Diamondbacks to scratch out enough runs vs. Wheeler to pull off the home upset on Friday.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 4 – Phillies 3
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (+136) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
