Phillies vs. Braves MLB Best Bet: Philly & Atlanta Close With an ‘Under’

Time is starting to run out on the Atlanta Braves who begin play Thursday 7-games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East race. The rivals only have one more series left with each other, and Atlanta’s hopes for a division title could hinge on winning this set tonight.

All of the ingredients are there to give this contest a playoff feel, including very tight moneylines. Bookmaker slightly favors Philadelphia on a -111 price with southpaw Christopher Sanchez (9-8, 3.46) on the hill opposite Atlanta rookie Spencer Schwellenbach (4-6, 4.04).

Series Notes & Season Trends

Reynaldo Lopez and three Atlanta relievers kept Philadelphia bats quiet in Tuesday’s series opener for a 3-1 win as +140 home underdogs. Lopez whiffed 10 would-be Phillies hitters in his 5 innings, and Marcell Ozuna broke a 1-1 tie with a solo shot in the 6th.

The clubs found themselves embroiled in another pitching duel in the second game of the set on Wednesday, and the Phillies evened the series by scratching a run across late for a 3-2 win as small favorites on the closing MLB odds.

Philadelphia’s Game 2 triumph left Atlanta with a 5-3 lead in the season series. The Braves are 4-3-2 in the last 5 meetings on their home turf, and Wednesday’s result once again rewarded ‘under’ bettors at Truist Park where the totals have fallen short in 4 of the 5 games this year.

Schwellenbach Has Been Tough on NL East Clubs

Christopher Sanchez is coming off a brilliant performance last Saturday, albeit against the somewhat offensively-challenged Washington Nationals. Pitching in front of a packed house in Philadelphia, Sanchez tossed his second complete game of the season and limited the Nationals to just 2 hits and a run.

The Dominican has some concerning home/road splits on the season, working to an impressive 2.18 ERA in 13 appearances at Citizens Bank Park compared to 5.53 in 11 road assignments. The right-hander is 1-3 in his last 4 road starts, pitching to a 7.52 ERA.

This will be Sanchez’s first look at the Braves in 2024, and he lost both starts against them in 2023 while working a combined 11.1 innings and allowing 7 earned runs. Atlanta is 23-13 against left-handed starters this season.

The Braves have dropped Schwellenbach’s last two starts, one in which they didn’t give him much support and the other when the bullpen imploded and blew an 8-2 lead. Atlanta had gone 4-1 in Schwellenbach’s previous 5 starts while he pitched to a 2.45 ERA in that stretch.

This will be the rookie’s 14th big league start, and Spencer Schwellenbach is hoping to repeat his effort in one of the previous 13 when he faced the Phillies in early July. That contest was also played in Atlanta where Schwellenbach worked 6, allowed just 1 run, and whiffed 6 in a 5-1 final as small chalk at top sportsbooks.

Schwellenbach’s last three assignments vs. NL East clubs have been winners for Atlanta, including that July 6 matchup with the Phillies. His only loss to an NL East club came in his MLB debut against the Nationals on May 29 (5 IP 3 ER).

Umpire Trends & Mother Nature

This crew has been together since Opening Day, with Todd Tichenor serving as the chief. Nestor Ceja is up next in the rotation to call balls and strikes, and the junior member of the foursome brings a 12-8-1 O/U/P record into the contest.

Now in his fifth season at the MLB level, Ceja had a more pronounced ‘under’ lean the last two seasons, and split his two plate assignments in Atlanta a year ago.

The weatherman is calling for sunny skies and a muggy 82° when Schwellenbach delivers the game’s first pitch about an hour before sunset. There is also an 8-10 mph breeze from the east (in from LF) in the forecast.

The Pick

It has been a brutal season as far as injuries go, with each club banged up along the way and scrambling to fill roster slots at times. Atlanta was hit especially hard with the loss of star Ronald Acuña Jr. earlier this year and suffered another blow when Austin Riley hit the injured list before this series got underway.

Riley is expected to miss the rest of the regular season due to a fractured right hand, and that is a huge blow to a lineup that relies so much on the long ball. That’s one reason behind my MLB pick on the ‘under’ in this contest.

MLB Pick: Under 8 (-103) at Heritage Sports

Under 8 (-103)

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