We have a typically full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday. We are here with a play that, according to our MLB odds, we feel has the most betting value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model points to a total in Kansas City Friday with the Padres visiting the Royals.
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MLB Pick: Under 8 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
San Diego Padres vs. Kansas City Royals
Friday, May 31, 2024 – 08:10 PM ET at Kauffman Stadium
We expect a low-scoring game and are supporting the Under on Friday when Dylan Cease and the Padres visit Michael Wacha and the Royals.
Back to Normal
Cease had several nice seasons with the White Sox, but the only organization he had known parted ways with him after an off-season last year where he went 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA and 4.08 xFIP. However, he is now back to his usual reliable self in his first season with San Diego. In fact, he deserves better than his 5-4 record considering his 3.29 ERA and aligning 3.19 xFIP.
That xFIP ranks 18th best in baseball as Dylan has seen a spike in his strikeout rate to 11.24/9 from an already very good 10.88/9 even in a disappointing season last year. Perhaps more importantly, he has slashed his walk rate to a career-best 2.74/9 from 4.02 in 2023. He has done that with a nice increase in fastball velocity to 97.0 MPH, which is even higher than his career average velocity of 96.6.
Capable Enough
Now, we are not huge fans of Wacha, and he seems to be pitching at his proper level this season with a 4.31 ERA and 4.04 xFIP. To be fair though, he has allowed three runs or less in eight of his 11 starts, including allowing two earned runs or less in his last four outings.
We remain dubious of his suspect K/BB ratio of 7.76/2.73 per nine innings and low 38.9% groundball rate, However, he does have a nice soft/hard contact ratio of 19.8% / 23.5%, so at least most of the air contact has been pop-ups and fly balls instead of line drives.
And let us not forget that we expect the Royals to struggle offensively against Cease, giving Wacha some leeway in allowing a few runs while this game stays Under.
The Pick
Given our expected excellence from Cease, we do think that Wacha has shown to be capable enough for us to bet the Under in this spot.
Predicted Score: Padres 4 – Royals 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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