We have a typically full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday. We are here with a play that, according to our MLB odds, we feel has the most betting value at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Friday comes in the Big Apple, where our model likes a side when the Diamondbacks visit the Mets.
For more of our betting analysis, check out:
And if you’re looking for more MLB picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel. Today, our expert has advice on the Tigers vs. Red Sox and Athletics vs. Braves games.
MLB Pick: Mets ML (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. New York Mets
Friday, May 31, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Citi Field
In a matchup of two disappointing teams with each in fourth place in their respective divisions, we are backing right-hander Luis Severino and the Mets over southpaw Jordan Montgomery and the Diamondbacks.
Snakes Struggling Against Righties
The Mets were just swept in a three-game series by the Dodgers to fall to 23-33 overall. However, Severino is not to blame for that record. He enters at 2-2 but deserves a better fate given his 3.22 ERA. Now healthy after several injury-plagued seasons crosstown with the Yankees, Luis has a moderate strikeout rate of 7.67/9 but has compensated for it with a career-high 52.4% groundball rate.
Furthermore, opposing batters are not getting good swings despite the strikeouts not being abundant, as he had an excellent soft/hard contact rate of 26.1% / 27.3%. Also, his fastball velocity is just fine at 96.4 MPH while the groundball success is attributable to his two fine secondary pitches, the cutter and slider.
He is facing an Arizona offense with very severe offensive splits. The Snakes are at their worst split tonight with a lacking wRC+ of 91 against right-handers, compared to a robust 116 against lefties.
Noticeable Slippage
Montgomery has had a solid career with a 3.75 ERA and 3.96 xFIP over 795.1 Major League innings. However, he has slipped a bit this year at the age of 31. He is rather fortunate to be 3-2 given his 4.69 ERA, and while his xFIP is a little better, it is not by much at 4.25.
While Jordan has never been a huge strikeout guy, that rate is at a career-low this season at a disturbing 5.36/9. And that does not look fluky with his swinging-strikeout in single digits for the first time in his career at 9.6%, down from 11.4% just last year. Moreover, his walks are up a bit at 2.68/9 and he has a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 12.0% / 30.1%.
The Pick
After getting swept by one of the best teams in baseball, we are looking for the Mets to bounce back while holding the pitching edge and facing a lesser opponent Friday night.
Predicted Score: Mets 5 – Diamondbacks 3
MLB Pick: Mets ML (-115) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
