We have a full slate of Major League Baseball matchups for Wednesday with 15 games on the betting card. As usual, we are here with a play we feel has the most betting value at top-rated sportsbooks.
This best bet is based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model points to a side in Anaheim on Wednesday with the Padres visiting the Angels.
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MLB Pick: Padres ML (-143) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
San Diego Padres vs. Los Angeles Angels
Wednesday, June 05, 2024 – 09:38 PM ET at Angel Stadium
The Angels are looking for a 3-game sweep in Anaheim, but we are betting on Dylan Cease and the Padres to avoid that against Jose Soriano on Wednesday.
Enjoying New Surroundings
Cease spent his entire career with the White Sox prior to this year. However, they parted ways with him after his worst Major League season last year when he went 7-9 with a 4.58 ERA. However, this is still a guy with a career 3.79 ERA and 3.95 xFIP over 729 innings, and he has regained his form in his first season in San Diego.
Dylan may be only 5-4, but he is sporting a 3.42 ERA, a better 3.25 xFIP and an excellent strikeout rate of 11.08/9 in 79 innings. He has raised his soft-contact rate to 19.2% from 17.6% in Chicago last year. Simultaneously, he’s been raising his swinging-strike rate to a very good 15.0% from 13.6%. All of this validates that opposing batters are not seeing him well.
Furthermore, he is facing an Angels offense ranked 26th in wRC+ against righties at just 88 and 27th in OPS against them at .660.
Converted Reliever
The Halos converted Soriano into a starter this season after all 38 appearances he made as a rookie last season were in relief. And while he is 2-5 in his new role, he does have a commendable 3.86 ERA with an aligning 3.85 xFIP. While those figures are not bad at all for a first-year starter, they still lag quite a bit behind Cease.
Also, Jose has gone beyond six innings only once in his 10 starts, which brings into play the horrible Angels bullpen that ranks 29th out of 30 teams in ERA at 4.77 while sporting a 4.44 xFIP. Furthermore, the only bullpen with a worse ERA belongs to Colorado, meaning the Halos have the worst pen ERA at sea level.
The Pick
According to the MLB odds, this looks like a pitching mismatch, particularly when the L.A. bullpen gets involved. So, back Cease and the Padres on the road to avoid the sweep.
Predicted Score: Padres 6 – Angels 3
MLB Pick: Padres ML (-143) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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