We have a full slate of Major League Baseball matchups for Wednesday with 15 games on the betting card. As usual, we are here with a play we feel has the most betting value at top-rated sportsbooks.
One of the best bets for Wednesday comes north of the border in Toronto where our proprietary model likes a side when the Orioles visit the Blue Jays.
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MLB Pick: Orioles ML (+106) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, June 05, 2024 – 07:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre
The Orioles have romped in the first two games of this series visiting the Blue Jays. We are betting on Baltimore on Wednesday with Albert Suárez facing José Berríos.
Vulnerable Favorites
The Blue Jays are the favorites here despite the 7-2 and 10-1 shellackings absorbed the last two nights, due to a perceived pitching edge tonight. And indeed, Berríos may deserve better than his 5-4 record given his 2.78 ERA through 12 starts. However, the news is not all rosy, starting with his noticeably higher 3.99 xFIP.
José has seen his strikeout rate dip to a career-low 7.02/9 this year from 8.73/9 last year. That dip in punch-outs makes his already lucky 87.3% strand rate look even luckier. Furthermore, the decrease in strikeouts does not seem fluky considering his swinging-strike rate plummeting to 8.5% from 11.0% last season.
He must now deal with a hot Baltimore offense ranked sixth in baseball in wRC+ against right-handers at .109 and seventh against them in OPS at .733.
How To Keep Toronto Bats Quiet
Now, Suárez comes in at 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA through 12 appearances including five starts. However, like Berríos, he is weaker on the Sabermetric end with a 4.00 xFIP. The difference though is that because he has been used as both a starter and reliever, he has a much quicker hook, oftentimes not going more than four innings as a starter.
According to the MLB odds, The exception is when he is pitching well while managing his pitch count, such as last time out when he was allowed to go five innings allowing one run on four hits. So, the bottom line is Albert will probably be pulled at the first sign of trouble, and the Orioles’ bullpen is 10th in the majors with a 3.98 xFIP.
The Pick
Therefore, we see Suárez and the bullpen keeping the Toronto bats as quiet as they have been in the first two games of this series, and the hot Baltimore bats exposing Berríos a bit. Back the Orioles as small dogs.
Predicted Score: Orioles 5 – Blue Jays 2
MLB Pick: Orioles ML (+106) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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