Orioles vs. Yankees MLB Best Bet: Will the Bronx Bombers Pop Champagne Tonight?

The bubbly has been chilled for several days now, just waiting for the New York Yankees to officially wrap up the AL East title. If the MLB odds are any indication, corks will be popped tonight in the series finale against the Baltimore Orioles.

All of the ingredients are there for the game to take on an October feel, starting with the fact the Yankees and Orioles have already clinched spots in the 2024 postseason.

The two rotations are also aligned perfectly to give us a pitching duel between former Cy Young winners Corbin Burnes (15-8, 2.95) and Gerrit Cole (7-5, 3.67). The oddsmakers like Cole and New York on a -140 moneyline, with a 7½-run total taxed a little heavier on the high side.

Series Notes & Rivalry Trends

It should be noted that the Yankees were also favored the last two evenings, and the Orioles upset those odds with victories in each of the first two games of the set.

Bookmaker listed New York -160 in Tuesday’s opener, and Baltimore brushed the Yankees aside with a 5-3 decision thanks to three solo home runs, the final pushing an 8-run total.

Game 2 breached an 8½-run total midway through the affair as the Orioles outhit the Yankees 9-7 on Wednesday. Aaron Judge and Juan Soto both homered for New York, but that wasn’t enough to top Baltimore’s 3 doubles and 14 singles.

Thanks to winning the last three matchups, Baltimore leads the season series 8-4 and is 4-1 on the year at Yankee Stadium. The underdog has been the best way to play the Birds and Yanks this season with 8 wins in the 12 matchups, while totals have run 5-5-2 O/U/P.

O’s Facing Cole 3rd Time This Season

Burnes tossed 7 scoreless innings in each of his last 2 starts, though that news must be tempered by the fact both outings came against a Detroit team that ranks in the middle of the American League in most offensive categories.

His previous two starts were against the Tampa Bay Rays and Chicago White Sox, so it has been a while since Burnes faced a formidable lineup like the Yankees will trot out tonight.

He did just fine against New York back in May when Burnes faced the Yankees at Camden Yards, a 2-run HR by Oswaldo Cabrera the only mistake in a 2-0 loss as -150 chalk. Burnes was also magnificent last September at Yankee Stadium with 8 shutout innings, only to see his Milwaukee bullpen blow it for an eventual 13-inning loss.

Winning clinching games like this one is why the Yankees are paying Cole 360,000 Benjamins to pitch for them this season. Since this should be his final start of the regular season, the math also works out to about $2.1 million per game.

Following a shelling at the hands of the Red Sox, Cole bounced back last Friday in Oakland with an outstanding performance. Cole held the A’s to 2 hits while striking out 7 over 9 innings (99 pitches), and picked up the dubya when the Yankees plated 3 in the top of the 10th for a 4-1 win as heavy favorites at top sportsbooks.

This will be Cole’s third assignment against the Orioles this year, New York splitting the previous 2 while the righthander worked to a 2.70 ERA over 10 frames. Cedric Mullins, who had 3 hits Wednesday and scored 3 times, is 10-29 (.345) with a homer lifetime vs. Cole.

Umpire Notes & Bronx Forecast

David Rackley will be at the dish for the series finale. It’s a crew chiefed by Chad Fairchild, and one that has had a rover filling in from the get-go after expected crew chief Ron Kulpa couldn’t answer the bell for 2024 following offseason surgery.

After beginning the season as a member of Larry Vanover’s crew, Rackley has emerged as a friend to ‘under’ bettors with a 13-20 O/U mark, that record 2-5 O/U in games with totals of 7½ or less.

Cloudy skies and a slight chance of rain are in the Bronx forecast. The weatherman is listing a 15%-25% likelihood of a shower during the contest, with the thermometer at 72° when Cole delivers the first pitch and a light 5 mph SSW breeze (out to left).

The Pick

The Orioles are still holding out hope to claim the AL East, which they can do by winning out while the Yankees lose their final 4 games. It’s certainly not likely, especially with the Pirates coming to the Bronx this weekend, but stranger things have happened in baseball.

Who wins tonight is not my concern, however, with the best MLB pick to just get behind Burnes and Cole to deliver an ‘under’ in the first 5 innings.

MLB Pick: Under 4 First 5 Innings (-110) at BetOnline

Under 4 First 5 Innings (-110)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.