Orioles vs. Dodgers MLB Best Bet: Ohtani Leads LA to Runline Winner

Looking at the ERAs of the two starting pitchers in the series finale between Baltimore and Los Angeles might lead some to wonder how the Orioles and Dodgers have two of the best records in the majors.

It might also lead some bettors to immediately think about the ‘Over’ when seeing Cade Povich (1-6, 6.10) toe the rubber for Baltimore while Bobby Miller (1-3, 7.49) does the same for LA, but is that really the best play?

Series Notes & Rivalry Trends

This potential World Series preview got underway Tuesday when the Orioles claimed a 3-2 decision as +168 underdogs at BetOnline. Ramon Urias popped a 2-run homer that proved the winning blow, and four Baltimore relievers combined on nearly 5 innings of shutout relief.

Los Angeles evened the set Wednesday when Shohei Ohtani led off the game with a home run and scored half of the Dodgers’ runs in a 6-4 final. Ohtani’s leadoff jack was the only earned run the Dodgers scored on the evening thanks to three Baltimore errors.

Prior to interleague play, the only history between the Orioles and Dodgers was the 1966 World Series when Baltimore hurlers put on a pitching clinic in a 4-game sweep. Since then, the clubs stand 12-12 against one another in regular season action.

Game 2 went past the total, sending ‘Over’ bettors back to the window to collect for the fourth time in the last five meetings. Underdogs have won three of the past five matchups.

Miller Has Been Stingy at Chavez Ravine

While Povich has just 1 win on his ledger against 6 defeats, the Orioles have at least managed to win all 3 of the rookie’s no-decisions. One of those was last Friday when they rallied at home with a big 8th inning for a 7-5 win over the Astros as small underdogs on the MLB odds.

A 3rd-round pick out of Nebraska by the Twins in 2021, Povich came to Baltimore in the same trade that brought reliever Yennier Cano and two others for Jorge Lopez, who is now playing for his fourth MLB franchise since that deal (including back with the Orioles at one point).

His 3 road starts have been rough, as evidenced by a 12+ ERA away from home, and Povich has issued 12 free passes in those 11 innings. His only interleague start came at home against Atlanta in his second MLB outing, and Povich blanked the Braves for 6 innings.

Miller has bounced between Single-A, Triple-A, and LA this season while the Dodgers look to get the former Louisville standout back on track. Maybe something clicked his last time out when Miller enjoyed his best start since his season debut way back in March.

With the Dodgers laying -190 chalk at home, Miller went 6 innings and struck out 9 with a couple of home run balls the only mistakes of his 96-pitch evening. The game is notable for Shohei Ohtani’s walk-off grand slam that made him a 40 HR-40 SB club member and gave Los Angeles a 7-3 victory.

This will be Miller’s first time to face the Orioles, and he owns a 2.65 ERA while holding hitters to a .206 average in 3 home starts this season.

Umpire Notes & Mother Nature

This will be the 24th time for Mike Muchlinski to work the plate in 2024, and he hasn’t shown much of a tendency so far with a 12-11 O/U record. The 19-year veteran was a flat 29-29-3 O/U/P in his plate assignments the last two seasons combined.  

It’s worth noting that regular crew chief Paul Emmel is MIA for this series, with Andy Fletcher serving as the acting crew chief. John Bacon is filling in for Emmel.

Clear skies and comfortable temperatures are once again expected for the contest. The forecast calls for the thermometer to read 71° at the time of Miller’s first pitch with a light 5-8 mph southwest breeze (out to right).

The Pick

There really is a lot to like about the ‘Over’ in this matchup, beginning with the starting pitchers. Even though Miller has been tough when pitching off the Dodger Stadium mound, Povich’s road struggles counter that.

But we need to remember that Wednesday’s game would not have gone past the total had it not been for the Orioles looking like the Keystone Cops out in the field. Look for Miller to once again be effective at home and for Ohtani to lead the Dodgers to a run-line winner.

MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+133) at BetOnline

Dodgers -1.5 (+133)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.