As we look ahead to the 2026 NHL campaign, we’re focusing on who could be the ideal preseason pick before the first puck drops. With the odds now released and value on offer, let’s take a look at some of this year’s favorites to hoist the Hart Memorial Trophy—along with a few outsiders who could offer greater value.
Among this season’s favorites are past winners Connor McDavid, Nathan MacKinnon, and Nikita Kucherov. Between them, these three have claimed five of the last ten Hart Memorial Trophies.
NHL 2026 MVP Odds
| Candidate | Price |
|---|---|
| Connor McDavid | +200 |
| Nathan MacKinnon | +400 |
| Nikita Kucherov | +600 |
| Leon Draisaitl | +950 |
| Kirill Kaprizov | +1200 |
| Auston Matthews | +1900 |
| Connor Hellebuyck | +2800 |
| Cale Makar | +2800 |
| David Pastrňák | +3000 |
| Jack Eichel | +3100 |
*All odds offered by BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Best Front Runners
Last season, Nikita Kucherov was arguably unlucky not to win the Hart Memorial Trophy after recording 121 points (37 goals and 84 assists). Nathan MacKinnon wasn’t far behind with 116 points, while Connor McDavid finished with 100 points despite missing 15 games.
The fourth favorite, Leon Draisaitl, tied for the third-most points last season with 106, alongside David Pastrnak—who’s currently a longshot at +3000 to win the award, likely due to the Boston Bruins entering a full rebuild. Draisaitl, meanwhile, led the league in goals with 52—seven more than the second-highest scorer.
Over the past seven seasons, at least three of the top four in the MVP odds have finished among the top three point-scorers in four different campaigns. In six of those seven seasons, at least two of the top four have ended up in the top three in league scoring.
Who’s Worth The Money
If Connor McDavid stays fit and healthy, he could easily put up 140 points in a season—making it very difficult to deny him the Hart Memorial Trophy. However, at +200, he’s being given roughly a 33% chance of winning, which is a massive share of the market. In comparison, MacKinnon holds just a 19% market share and Kucherov 13%, meaning the top three combined account for an incredible 65% of the total odds.
We’ve been anticipating a decline from Kucherov for a few seasons now, but it still hasn’t come. That said, at +950, the sportsbooks may believe this is the year he begins to drop off the top of the scoring charts. It’s possible—and +600 would arguably be fairer value than his current line.
MacKinnon is a reliable point-scorer, but he occasionally flies under the radar during the season. Right now, he’s not worth backing at +420. Anything above +650 might present better value for the Avalanche star.
As for Kirill Kaprizov, he’s always a threat and clearly trending upward, but it’s hard to see him taking home the trophy unless the Minnesota Wild significantly overachieve this season.
For us, the best value pick right now is Connor McDavid’s sidekick, Leon Draisaitl, at +950. The German-born star has been one of the most consistent players in the league, surpassing 100 points in every full season since 2018—except for 2021, when he still posted 84 points in just 56 games (an average of over one point per game).
Stanley Cup Winner Odds
Trend Ends After 10 Seasons
Last season, the Hart Memorial Trophy was won by a goaltender for the first time in 10 years. The last to do it was Carey Price in 2015. In 2024–25, it was Connor Hellebuyck who earned the honor, finishing the season with a 47-12-3 record, a 2.01 goals-against average, a .925 save percentage, and eight shutouts.
To their credit, the sportsbooks were fairly accurate—Hellebuyck opened as the seventh favorite in the MVP market at +1900 odds.
Interestingly, Hellebuyck is once again the seventh favorite this season, though at longer odds of +2800. That said, we don’t believe a goaltender is likely to win back-to-back Hart Memorials in today’s NHL—it’s difficult enough to win it once. And realistically, Hellebuyck isn’t expected to replicate the kind of season he had in 2025.
