NFL Pick: Buccaneers ML (+150) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Saints and Buccaneers are 2-1 in the NFC South just like the Atlanta Falcons going into Week 4. All 3 teams lost in Week 3, but this is the first big divisional matchup with the Buccaneers hoping to follow up last year’s sweep of the Saints with another victory under coach Todd Bowles.
The Saints blew a 17-point lead in the 4th quarter in Green Bay last week, and they now have a quarterback issue as Derek Carr left that game with an injured shoulder. It could be Jameis Winston against his former team this week. That did not go well for the Saints last year when Winston started in a Week 2 loss to the Buccaneers.
But Tampa Bay is a 3.5-point road underdog in this one at the top-rated sportsbooks. The Buccaneers were not impressive in a 25-11 loss to the Eagles on Monday night, but they have a shot to rebound against a key division foe here.
Based on our NFL computer picks, we have multiple reasons why the Buccaneers are a good upset choice this week.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints
Sunday, October 01, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Caesars Superdome
Expect a Defensive Battle
It would be a shock if this was a high-scoring game given these teams’ playing style and familiarity with each other in the coaching staffs. The last 3 meetings ended 9-0, 20-10, and 17-16 with the Saints getting swept last year after brutal performances in the 4th quarter. The Saints have not allowed more than 20 points in 11 straight games, the longest streak in the NFL in a decade.
A low-scoring game should help it be close by nature, and the Buccaneers have already won a close one in Minnesota with a game-winning drive and then intercepted Justin Fields for a touchdown in a 3-point game against Chicago in Week 2.
According to Pro Football Reference, these defenses have nearly identical pressure rates with the No. 13 Buccaneers (26.2%) just ahead of the No. 14 Saints (25.8%). But how they get pressure is totally different as the Buccaneers blitz at the 3rd-highest rate (45.1%) while New Orleans is more middle of the pack (26.6%).
The Saints have better overall defensive stats than Tampa Bay, and a better recent track record on that side of the ball. But you could also say the Buccaneers have faced better offenses this year, especially with games against the Vikings and Eagles. The best offense New Orleans has faced was probably still Green Bay despite the missing starters (Christian Watson, Aaron Jones, David Bakhtiari, etc.). They gave up 18 points in the 4th quarter of that one.
Jameis Winston’s Mistakes
Derek Carr has not been ruled out yet with a shoulder injury (sprained AC joint), but it does sound more likely than not that Jameis Winston will start in his place this week. All we can say is that if Carr does play, he has not put up many points this year, and he is taking sacks at an absurd rate (11.2% when his career sack rate was 5.1% for the Raiders).
But with Winston, you always have to worry about turnovers. He threw 3 interceptions against the Buccaneers at home last year, including a big pick-6 in the 4th quarter of a 20-10 loss.
Winston can also be prone to taking sacks. It is unclear if the sacks Carr has been taking are related to a poor offensive line or his learning curve on a new team after 9 years with the Raiders. But Carr has never taken sacks like he has in the last 3 weeks, so there is some concern there about the protection for the New Orleans quarterback. We know Bowles likes to blitz too with his defense.
For all the concern about Baker Mayfield, his stats are about middle of the road right now, and slightly better than Carr’s. In a close game, there is also not much of a gap here:
- Baker Mayfield: 9-22 (.290) at game-winning drive opportunities
- Jameis Winston: 13-31 (.295) at game-winning drive opportunities
Mike Evans Is Not a Bust vs. Saints Anymore
At age 30, Mike Evans has gotten off to one of the best starts of his career with 297 yards and 3 touchdowns this year. His 10.6 yards per target would be the best of his career since 2018 (11.0).
But one thing that has followed Evans around is his poor history against corner Marshon Lattimore and the Saints. Since 2017, Evans has had 5 games where he has been held under 15 receiving yards against the Saints. The rest of the NFL has done that to Evans 3 times total in his other 129 career games.
Evans and Lattimore were ejected in last year’s game after a scuffle. There is some hatred there, but Evans did at least have 61 and 59 yards in the games against New Orleans last year. So, he should not be useless in this game, and he is playing very well right now for Mayfield.
Alvin Kamara and Diminishing Returns
The Saints have some issues at running back with Jamaal Williams on injured reserve. They were led in rushing in Green Bay by Kendre Miller, who only had 34 yards in a game where the offense managed just 10 points against a Green Bay team missing several defensive stars.
Top running back Alvin Kamara makes his 2023 debut this week after serving a 3-game suspension to start the season. But Kamara may be rusty this week, and he has only averaged 3.9 yards per carry since 2021.
Tampa Bay has held Kamara to 3.74 yards per carry in 11 regular-season games in his career. He has 23 carries for 44 yards in his last 2 games against the Buccaneers, so he was shut down entirely.
Tampa’s only real concern is wide receiver Chris Olave going off with a big game like A.J. Brown had for the Eagles on Monday night. But the Buccaneers have already held the Vikings and Bears to 17 points each despite Justin Jefferson (150 yards) and D.J. Moore (104 yards) both going over 100 yards.
The Pick
You could say both teams were showing a bit of fool’s gold with their 2-0 starts, but they are evenly matched and this should be a tight one. I’ll trust Tampa’s blitzing defense to get more mistakes out of Winston to give the Buccaneers an upset win in a low-scoring game for your NFL picks.
NFL Pick: Buccaneers ML (+150) at Bovada
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