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NFL Week 4 Swinger’s Best Bets: Swinger’s 5-Unit Max Bet in Bengals/Panthers Clash
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Swinging Johnson
- September 26, 2024
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Top NFL Pick: Bengals -4 (-105) for 5 units at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Swinger went 1-2 ATS in his NFL picks last week, but he’s got three solid plays in Week 4 and one of them is his first 5-unit maximum selection of the season!
Swinger’s 2024 NFL Record: 4-4-1 ATS (-2.12 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
Week 4 of the NFL is here; there’s still time to score big! Join BMR Forum’s Free $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool for your shot at massive prizes all season long!
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Week 3 Recap (1-2 ATS, -4.66 units)
I will be making no more wagers on the Titans as long as Will the Pill is under center in Tennessee. Levis has contributed to two of my four losses this year including last week in which he tossed a pick-six that caused my 2 units to circle the drain in the Titans’ 30-14 loss to the Packers as 1½ point home chalk.
My second loss last week cut the deepest as the Dolphins got smoked, 24-3, by the Seahawks and never even sniffed a cover as 4½ road dogs. The immortal Skyler Thompson proved why he is a career backup and that little lesson cost me a whopping 4 units.
Imagine, the only saving grace on the day came via the Red Rifle and the Carolina Panthers. What a difference a veteran quarterback makes, right? The Cats went into Sin City without a victory to their name and came away with a 36-22 win as 5½ point underdogs at the NFL odds boards, which put 2 units in our pockets.
Overall, we lost north of 4 units due to a spectacularly disappointing performance by the Dolphins and a poor decision by me to put 4 units on them with a largely untested quarterback under center. It’s time to let our bookies know that the short-term loan we gave them last week is due Monday morning and then some!
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers
Sunday, September 29, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Bank of America Stadium
We’ve got Cincinnati in a good spot here. The squares will not only want to fade the Bengals after they dropped their third consecutive game, but they’ll want to bury the Panthers who looked like a different team last week in their 14-point road win over the Raiders with veteran Dandy Andy Dalton in the pocket in place of Bryce Young.
I’m happy the public has the memory of a goldfish and doesn’t look at the big picture. Yes, the Bengals have underperformed and Joe Burrow looks like a handsome Ellen Degeneres, but the Carolina defense is about the worst in football and if you think the talented trio of Burrow, Chase, and Higgins aren’t gonna light this mofo up then be my guest and bet the Panthers.
Burrow is 15-7 ATS following a defeat and the Bengals need this game like oxygen, otherwise, they’ll head into Week 5 with a 0-4 mark. Not a chance, the Bengals are going to win this one going away, which is why I’m making this my first 5-unit max play pick of the season!
NFL Pick: Bengals -4 (-105) for 5 units at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts
Sunday, September 29, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium
There was something different about Justin Fields in Pittsburgh’s 20-10 win over the Chargers last week. He was the prototypical game manager in the first two games, careful not to make any mistakes and just happy to be given a fresh start and the starting job over the highly decorated – and highly paid I might add – Russell Wilson.
They beat the Falcons and Broncos in a rather mundane fashion but last week the coaching staff took the top off the offense and gave Fields much more latitude. The results were encouraging, with Fields completing over 78% of his passes for a season-high 245 yards as well as one passing and one rushing touchdown in the win over the Bolts.
Too Many Injuries
This week Fields and the Steelers’ offense will face an injury-ravaged Colts defense that is missing its star defensive lineman DeForest Buckner. The mobile Fields and running back Najee Harris should be able to run, run, run, and run a little bit more.
This will open up the passing game where the Colts’ defensive backfield is also ailing. Giddy up George Pickens, this could be a breakout game for you if you can exploit these obvious weaknesses.
On the flip side of the ball, the Steelers have the top defense in the league as they are No. 1 in total yardage allowed (229 yards/game) and in points against, permitting only 8.7 points per game.
I know, this looks so good, it feels like it should be a max play bet, right? Well, the Steelers are on the road and despite Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson’s proclivity to make poor decisions, he also has freakish athletic ability and I’m leery he could keep this one close all by himself if he gets into a groove early in the game.
I want to bet 5 units here but I’m going to limit this to 3 because I am a bed-wetter.
NFL Pick: Steelers -1½ (-120) for 3 units at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
Sunday, September 29, 2024 – 01:00 PM ET at NRG Stadium
It’s too early to slap a sophomore slump label on CJ Stroud, but he doesn’t look like the swaggy rookie who left the league breathless last year. However, he could get well very quickly against a hellacious Jaguars defense. Stroud will be able to sip a cup of coffee in the pocket while he casually chooses his targets because Jax has no pass rush to speak of.
On the other side, Trevor Lawrence is getting pummeled because his O-line is a mess. Okay, he’s been a bit of a mess as well but I’ll always cut a QB some slack if the men who are supposed to protect him allow those chasing him to hunt him down like he’s got a bounty on his head.
You can bet the Texans will want redemption from a lackluster Week 3 performance in which they dropped a 34-7 decision to the Vikings. Make no mistake, the Jaguars do not resemble the Vikings in any way, shape, or form. And more to the point, CJ Stroud was 5-2 against the spread following a defeat last year. Let’s watch him extend that to 6-2 ATS after this one is over.
NFL Pick: Texans -6 (-125) for 4 units at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The Woodman’s Corner (1-2 ATS)
If misery loves company, the Woodman and I must be getting married in the spring. In a rare circumstance, we were both squarely on the Dolphins last week and we both got our collective asses kicked. At least Woodman bets a consistent one-unit on his picks while mine vary from 1 to 5 units and the Fish cost me four.
This week the Woodman has decided that the Broncos will keep it close at MetLife Stadium this week when they take on Aaron Rodgers and the J-E-T-S, Jets! Gang Green’s defense scares me while Denver’s offense concerns me with rookie Bo Nix without a passing touchdown after three games. But by God, he’s got four picks!
I wish the Woodman all kinds of luck but I’m staying away from this one.
Woodman’s Pick: Broncos +7½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
