There has been a lot of movement in the NFL this offseason. Tom Brady announced his retirement and then returned a month later. Aaron Rodgers actually signed an extension with Green Bay too. Meanwhile, Carson Wentz, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson, and Deshaun Watson will be wearing new jerseys along with so many other quarterbacks for this upcoming season.
But at the top of the MVP list, you will only see quarterbacks that haven’t moved, including Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Tom Brady, Joe Burrow, Aaron Rodgers, and Matthew Stafford. Stafford just won a Super Bowl ring but is just +1800 to win the MVP for this upcoming season.
Stafford
The big question is whether or not Stafford is being overlooked. And I simply don’t think so. Stafford won’t have Robert Woods available next year and clearly won’t be throwing to Odell Beckham Jr. early this season due to his injury.
But either way, no matter who he’s throwing the ball to, Stafford makes mistakes. He makes a lot of them. Stafford had 17 interceptions last season and almost threw an interception in the playoffs that would’ve potentially derailed their season against the 49ers.
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I understand that Stafford is being asked to do more with the Rams. The Rams love passing the ball and utilizing all the skill positions to the maximum. But Stafford only had two seasons prior to last year where he threw for more interceptions than 17. He was also sacked 30 times and had a QBR of 63.8, which is really good, but wasn’t his best of all time.
Stafford is absolutely getting older and we shouldn’t expect prime numbers, but after signing a multi-year extension with the Rams, the expectations are still very high because the Rams believe they can win again next season. Regardless of what they think, even if the Rams do make the Super Bowl again this year, it’s unlikely that we see Stafford win the MVP this season.
Odds
Current odds at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, and Justin Herbert are all +750 to win the MVP. Those are the three “favorites” of the quarterbacks to win the award. Then there’s Tom Brady, sitting at +900, along with Joe Burrow at +1000 and Aaron Rodgers at +1400.
Rodgers likely dropped because his favorite receiver, Davante Adams just went to the Las Vegas Raiders to be with Derek Carr. Carr is now +2000 to win the MVP in a group with Dak Prescott, Lamar Jackson, and Kyler Murray.
Long Shot
If you’re looking for a long shot, taking a look at Derek Carr isn’t such a bad idea. He’ll have a healthy Darren Waller, Adams, and a team that will be more disciplined without any off-the-field issues. Despite all that crazy stuff happening, the Raiders were still in playoff contention throughout the entire season and have interesting NFL futures odds.
Imagine Carr when he finally gets to take a deep breath and enjoy a team that isn’t going to get in trouble off the field every single day.
Calculators
