Top MLB Pick for Today
Padres vs. Braves: Braves -1½ (+130) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
Picks Summary
- Padres vs. Braves: Braves -1½ (+130)
- Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks: Under 8½ (+100)
Mother Nature is wreaking havoc on Thursday’s baseball betting card with four games canceled already, but we’ve found value in a couple of series openers in the National League, each with an intriguing pitching matchup.
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
Thursday, April 06, 2023 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
It’s never too early to ponder a series being a potential playoff preview, especially when it’s one like this weekend between the Atlanta Braves and San Diego Padres, two of the top clubs on the MLB futures board.
- Blake Snell: 0-1, 6.23
- Spencer Strider: 1-0, 0.00
Strider and Atlanta on the Chalk Line
Thursday’s clash is the opener of a long weekend set and features a former Cy Young winner Blake Snell going against a strong Cy Young contender in the future, Spencer Strider. Atlanta is priced -160 or a little higher at most Georgia betting sites, with a 7½-run total juiced to the ‘over.’
Snell Facing Braves for 1st Time in 5 Years
San Diego won the season series last year 4-3 and did so by virtue of winning two of the three games played in Atlanta after the clubs split a 4-game set at Petco Park. All three games played at Truist Park went past the totals.
Following the ‘over’ has been profitable in Padres games with four of their six games going past the totals. One of those ‘overs’ was in Snell’s outing on Opening Day, and he facilitated things by allowing 3 runs before escaping the fifth in a loss to the Rockies.
Snell hasn’t faced the Braves since his days with the Rays in 2018, losing a tough 1-0 decision at Tropicana Field where Atlanta’s only run was a Ronald Acuña homer.
Strider Looking as Good as Always
Strider picked up where he left off last season with a brilliant performance in his season debut. The former 4th-round pick out of Clemson worked 6 shutout innings while striking out 9 to beat the Nationals in Washington last Saturday.
He started last season in Atlanta’s bullpen before transitioning to a starting role, and it was in relief that he saw the Padres twice early in the season (4/2 IP, 2 ER).
Chop-Chop for Braves in Opener
The Braves come home following a road sweep in St. Louis, and they’re firing on all cylinders in the early going. Let’s get this party started with a run line play.
MLB Pick: Braves -1½ (+130) at BetAnySports
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Thursday, April 06, 2023 – 10:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
They’ve already gone mano a mano once, and the pitching pairing in Thursday’s Dodgers-Diamondbacks matchup is one we could see a few more times between NL West rivals Los Angeles and Arizona.
- Dustin May: 0-0, 0.00
- Merrill Kelly: 0-0, 0.00
‘Under’ Cashes 9 of Last 10 Meetings in Phoenix
Should these two meet a few more times this season, it’s going to be interesting to see what kind of ROI Kelly might bring since we know he’ll be a sizeable underdog to May and the Dodgers. Los Angeles is favored in the mid-to-upper 140s with 8½ for the total.
The Dodgers have beaten the Diamondbacks like a red-headed stepchild for a while now, winning 14 of the 19 meetings a year ago and 38 of the last 48 clashes going back to the ill-fated 2020 campaign. Nine of the 10 at Chase Field finished ‘under’ the MLB odds.
Gingergaard Off Solid Spring & Season Debut
Speaking of redheads, May was -185 chalk last Friday in LA where the Dodgers hosted Kelly and the Diamondbacks. May was brilliant with seven shutout innings while Kelly left in the fourth having allowed zero runs. Arizona pushed across 2 runs in the eighth for a 2-1 upset.
May had a solid spring and is making just his second career start in Phoenix, the other coming in 2020 and lasting just an inning after he was hit by a grounder. Kelly spent much of his spring with Team USA at the WBC, and he was 5-5 with a 3.02 ERA in 17 Chase Field starts last year.
LA Playing Shorthanded on Infield
Los Angeles has a couple of players nursing injuries, most notably Mookie Betts. Playing second base on Tuesday, Betts and Jason Heyward got tangled up on a pop in shallow right field, and Betts was a bit gimpy on his right ankle. He is expected to play Thursday.
Miguel Rojas missed the two games against the Rockies earlier this week after suffering a groin injury in the series finale against the Diamondbacks last weekend. The veteran infielder will be a game-time decision.
I’m not about to go against a trend like we see in the totals column between these two teams in Phoenix, and will happily go with an MLB pick on the low side of the scoreboard.
MLB Pick: Under 8½ (+100) at BetAnySports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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