MLB Top Pick for Today
Athletics vs. Rays: Rays -1.5 (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Picks Summary
- Athletics vs. Rays: Rays -1.5 (-125)
- Padres vs. Braves: Braves ML (-125)
- Nationals vs. Rockies: Nationals ML (+100)
There were many postponements on yesterday’s schedule. All four of those games will be made up today, so we’ve got an even bigger slate. Here are three MLB picks I’ll be firing tonight.
Oakland Athletics vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, April 07, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
Teams Analysis
Tampa Bay Rays
It’ll be Zach Eflin on the mound for the Rays tonight. He’s got a 4.00 xFIP with 21.7% of strikeouts dating back to last season. He’s also walked under 5% of batters.
He’ll take on an Oakland lineup that has combined to hit a .282 wOBA through an average of 300 at-bats each. That’s typically not going to get the job done.
There’s some power from the left side. Seth Brown could do damage, but he’s the only lefty with any advantage against Eflin.
Oakland Athletics
On the other hand, Ken Waldichuk will man the mound for the Athletics. His first start didn’t go as planned. He finished with a 6.52 xFIP and struck out under 15% of the batters he faced. Ground balls were low, and line drives were high.
He’s solid against lefties as a left-handed pitcher, but righties have hit a .386 wOBA and ISO of .282 in his last 139 plate appearances against them.
The lineup will likely be all right-handed for the Rays, including power bats like Isaac Paredes and Randy Arozarena, who have destroyed lefties dating back to last season.
The Pick
The Rays are the only undefeated team in the MLB. It’ll stay that way today.
MLB Pick: Rays -1.5 (-125) at BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. Atlanta Braves
Friday, April 07, 2023 – 07:20 PM EDT at Truist Park
Teams Analysis
Atlanta Braves
The Padres will face Jared Shuster for tonight’s game. Shuster made his season debut last week and struggled. He had a great Spring Training, and some hype surrounded him. But he had the jitters early and gave up four runs in his first inning.
But eventually, he settled down and got through some innings. The Padres are getting quality hitting out of Xander Bogaerts and Manny Machado. But the rest of the offense has struggled against lefties since last season.
As a team, the Padres have hit an ISO of .155 and wOBA of .322. They’ve just been able to limit strikeouts. Shuster won’t dominate the Padres with high strikeouts. If the Padres put the ball in play, good things could happen.
San Diego Padres
Meanwhile, it’ll be Nick Martinez on the hill for the Padres. He’s had a 4.38 xFIP from last season and has walked 8.6% of batters. He’s more of a ground ball pitcher and can earn a lot of strikeouts.
The Braves have struck out 23.2% of the time against righties using the projected lineup. But the team has also hit a .200 ISO with a wOBA of .325 against righties.
Atlanta has the more efficient bats in their lineup in this game. Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Travis d’Arnaud, Michael Harris, and Marcell Ozuna have each hit a high ISO against righties.
The Pick
Following the MLB odds, I’ll take the Braves on the short moneyline price at home.
MLB Pick: Braves ML (-125) at BetOnline
Washington Nationals vs. Colorado Rockies
Friday, April 07, 2023 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
Teams Analysis
Colorado Rockies
The Nationals were shut out yesterday against the Rockies. But they’re facing Jose Urena in tonight’s game. They’ll get back on track.
Urena has a 5.27 xFIP since last season, with 14% of strikeouts and 10.5% of walks. He’s been one of the worst starters in the MLB.
Washington has yet to show much pop against righties, but the team has struck out under 20% of the time against righties. They’ll at least put the ball in play, and we’ve seen what happens when Urena allows runners on base. Chaos.
Washington Nationals
Meanwhile, MacKenzie Gore will take the hill for the Nationals. He earned his first win in his first start of the season and has a 1.69 ERA this year.
Urena has a 15.43 ERA this season. Which pitcher would you rather back?
The Rockies have hit a .173 ISO and wOBA of .319, which is solid but have only walked 6.8% of the time with the projected lineup since last season. Gore is much more unhittable than Urena will ever be.
The Pick
Take the Nationals at +100. The wrong team is favored so let’s take advantage of it at Washington DC betting sites.
MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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