MLB Picks for Today (April 3): Will Texas Stay Undefeated To Start The Season?

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MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-130) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Rangers ML (-130)
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Picks Summary

  • Twins ML (-120)
  • Pirates vs. Red Sox Over 9.5 (+107)
  • Rangers ML (-130)

We’ve got plenty of MLB on the slate tonight! We’re getting deeper into the season. That means some of the worst pitchers will take the hill in the next few days.

Here are three best betting picks to consider for tonight’s MLB slate. And don’t forget to check out our Texas betting guide if you’re planning on placing your wagers from the Lone Star State!

Minnesota Twins vs. Miami Marlins

Monday, April 03, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at loanDepot park

Teams Analysis

Minnesota Twins

The Miami Marlins will send out Johnny Cueto for tonight’s game, who finished last year with an xFIP above 5. He also struck out under 16% of batters and earned just 42.7% of ground balls.

Cueto didn’t allow a ton of power. Leftie shit a wOBA of .318 with an ISO of .148. On the other hand, righties hit a wOBA of .288 with an ISO of .138. But still, players were on base, creating havoc.

The Twins’ projected lineup has a .165 ISO and wOBA of .310 against righties dating back to last year. Minnesota strikes out a lot against righties but likely will keep those numbers down against Cueto.

Miami Marlins

The Marlins will have to face Tyler Mahle. Mahle had a 4.76 xFIP last season but still stuck out 25% of batters. He won’t get a ton of ground balls but won’t give up many line drives. He struggled more against righties last year, allowing a .197 ISO to his previous 249 righties faced.

The Marlins’ projected lineup will have five righties in the lineup. But as a group, the team has struck out over 21% of the time against righties.

Mahle’s the much better pitcher in this spot.

The Pick

For my first pick, I’ll take the Minnesota Twins over the Miami Marlins in tonight’s game.

MLB Pick: Twins ML (-120) at BetOnline

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Twins ML (-120)
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Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Boston Red Sox

Monday, April 03, 2023 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park

Teams Analysis

Pittsburgh Pirates

The Pirates will get to face Kutter Crawford tonight. Crawford finished with a 4.94 xFIP last season, which isn’t very good.

Crawford’s got good stuff. He won’t induce many ground balls or give up many line drives; however, lefties hit a .397 wOBA and ISO of .325 in 139 plate appearances.

The Pirates could have six lefties in the lineup against Crawford, including ONeil Cruz, who has a .248 ISO and wOBA of .354 against his last 250 righties.

Boston Red Sox

On the other hand, Pittsburgh will start Johan Oviedo. Oviedo had a 4.87 xFIP last season. Righties hit a .309 wOBA and ISO of .155 against him.

Boston will have four righties in the lineup and other lefties who can put the ball in play and limit strikeouts. Adam Duvall has been a game-changer for this club early. He’s a righty who can do damage along with Justin Turner, who has a .344 wOBA against his last 396 righties faced.

Both teams will likely end up putting up crooked numbers tonight.

The Pick

Let’s back the Over 9.5 between two starters with low xFIP numbers collectively.

MLB Pick: Over 9.5 (+107) at BetOnline

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Over 9.5 (+107)
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Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers

Monday, April 03, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field

Teams Analysis

Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles have all the hitting in the world. But the pitching and fielding are where things will take a turn for the worst. They will face Jon Gray tonight in Texas, who had a 4.00 xFIP last season while striking out nearly 26% of batters. He will get a solid amount of grounders and limit line drive. Both sides of the plate have had significant success hitting extra-base hits against Gray.

The Orioles’ lefties will be able to do some damage. And they’ve got six lefties. But Gray will be able to get some ground balls and escape jams.

Texas Rangers

Meanwhile, the Orioles will pitch Kyle Bradish. His BABIP was a .314 last year, and he also gave up nearly 40% of hard contact when balls were put into play.

Righties hit a wOBA of .343 against Bradish in 334 plate appearances last year. Righties like Marcus Semien, Adolis Garcia, and Josh Jung should have solid contact against Bradish in tonight’s game.

The Pick

The Rangers went 3-0 against the Phillies to begin the season. The offense is hitting at elite levels.

Now they’ll pitch Jon Gray, who has all the stuff to be an ace of many staffs. Take the Rangers at -130 betting odds.

MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-130) at BetOnline

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.