MLB Pick: Rays ML (-126) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Picks Summary:
- Red Sox vs. Rays: Rays ML (-126)
- Royals vs. Rangers: Rangers ML (-168)
- Dodgers vs. Giants: Dodgers -1.5 (+100)
It’s a getaway day in the MLB. We’ve got a lot of earlier games on the slate, but I’m on some of the later games tonight. Which MLB picks will you be tailing?
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
It’s Taj Bradley’s Debut!
The Tampa Bay Rays had to put Zach Eflin on the Injured List. But they’ll now pitch Taj Bradley, a top pitching prospect in the Tampa Bay system. He has a 5.14 ERA in two starts in triple-A this year. But overall, he’s got a 2.66 ERA in 75 career games in the minors.
Bradley is a right-hander who will have a lot of pressure on him tonight. The Rays are still undefeated, and he won’t want to be the pitcher to break that streak. The Red Sox have struck out just 15.4% of the time against righties dating back to last year using the projected lineup. That’s not a good sign for Bradley, but ultimately, Bradley has some excellent stuff in his arsenal.
Rafael Devers and Triston Casas are the two lefties that could hit Bradley for extra-base power. Both have an ISO of above .250.
Chris Sale Is Washed!
On the other hand, Chris Sale will get the start for the Red Sox. Sale is past his prime and now has an 11.25 ERA in two starts. Sale has still struck out 13 batters in two games, but walks are high this season, along with his wOBA and ISO number against lefties and righties.
The Rays are currently one of the hottest teams in baseball. They’ve slugged against lefties to begin the year. As a unit, this team has hit a .310 ISO against lefties with a .404 wOBA.
The Pick
Bradley will have a quick hook if he’s not performing, but Sale will stay out there after making multiple mistakes.
Following the MLB odds, I’ll back the Rays again.
MLB Pick: Rays ML (-126) at BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Are The Rangers World Series Sleepers?
The Rangers have started the season 7-4. They’ll face Brad Keller, who is typically not very good tonight. However, he’s 1-1 with a 2.61 ERA over his first two starts. Keller has struck out nine batters in those two starts but still has a 4.95 xFIP with nearly 16% of walks this season.
I’m not buying the Keller hype. Keller is inducing 63% of ground balls. That rate will stay high but not that high, especially against a Rangers lineup that has hit 24.5% of line drives against righties this season.
The Rangers have struck out at a high rate this season against righties, but there’s still plenty of power in the lineup and Keller has struck out just 20.5% of batters this season. The Rangers will put the ball in play and hit line drives that should find the outfield grass.
Is Nathan Eovaldi Back?
Maybe Nathan Eovaldi just needed a change of scenery. He’s got a 3.10 xFIP through two starts for the Rangers this season. Eovaldi still has a 4.22 ERA but has struck out 12 batters. He’s earned 50% of ground balls and has limited hard contact. He’ll now take on a Royals lineup with .247 wOBA against righties this season.
I’ll trust Eovaldi in this spot. He’s pitcher better than his ERA looks over the first two games. His strikeouts are high, and his walks are low.
The Pick
Take the Rangers on the moneyline. For Lone Star State residents looking to bet on this game, you can do it at our top Texas betting sites.
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (-168) at BetOnline
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
Should Alex Cobb Get More Love?
Alex Cobb is 0-1 with a 2.53 ERA through two starts this season. The Giants starter has a 2.20 xFIP through these first two games and has struck out 27.3% of batters while walking only 2.3%. Cobb has also earned 58.1% of ground balls but has allowed nearly 26% of line drives in those two starts.
He’s limited extra-base hits but will take on a Dodgers lineup with a .276 ISO against righties this season.
This is the damage that the Dodgers are doing to righties this year.
- Mookie Betts has a .229 ISO and wOBA of .390
- Freddie Freeman has a .425 wOBA
- Max Muncy has a .310 ISO and wOBA of .383
- J.D. Martinez has a .286 ISO
- Jason Heyward has a .563 ISO and wOBA of .424
- Miguel Vargas has a .214 ISO and wOBA of .410
- James Outman has a .429 ISO and wOBA of .439
The Dodgers still have so much offensive potential and, after putting up a goose egg last night, should come around offensively tonight. Plus, the Giants have just two players hitting for power against lefties this season. It’s a small sample size, but the Giants have a .231 wOBA against lefties this season with 43.9% of strikeouts. Clayton Kershaw is on the mound.
The Pick
Let’s back the Dodgers on the run line.
MLB Pick: Dodgers -1.5 (+100) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
