Top MLB Pick of the Day
Yankees vs. Guardians: Guardians ML (+145) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Picks Summary
- Yankees vs. Guardians: Guardians ML (+145)
- Astros vs. Pirates: Pirates +1.5 (-115)
- Red Sox vs. Rays: Under 7.5 (-110)
The Cleveland Guardians lead our Tuesday three-pack of MLB picks when they host the over-hyped New York Yankees.
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 – 06:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Teams Analysis
Sometimes it’s smart to bet on the New York Yankees. There are times when the Yankees are actually good enough to exceed market expectations – like they did in 2019 when they won 103 games and finished 11.71 betting units in the black.
That was the last time New York made a profit, though. Maybe they’re back on the good foot after finishing the weekend at 6-3 (plus-1.11 units), but as a general rule, the Yankees are classic fade candidates for your MLB picks. Put them on the same diamond as the 6-4 Cleveland Guardians (plus-2.47 units), and you’ve got our first recommendation for Tuesday’s trifecta of single bets: run line, moneyline, and total.
The Guardians aren’t the perfect small-market foil for New York, but they are a Rust Belt team from the AL Central, and one that might be easier for bettors to overlook since their recent branding update.
As usual, the expected pitching matchup is a microcosm of the game itself. Yankees starter Gerrit Cole (2.45 xFIP in 12.1 innings) is a five-time All-Star and two-time strikeout king; Cleveland’s Hunter Gaddis (5.65 xFIP in 9.2 innings) is a former All-Sun Belt Conference hurler at Georgia State who will make his fifth career MLB start this Tuesday.
The Moneyline Pick
The projections we’re following here at the ranch have the Yankees scoring four runs and Cleveland somewhere around 3.5; that translates to a 56.6% chance of victory, or -130 for a fair moneyline using the steely-eyed BMR’s Odds Converter.
Taking Cleveland +145 at BetOnline for one unit is just the right thing to do.
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+145) at BetOnline
Houston Astros vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 – 06:35 PM EDT at PNC Park
Teams Analysis
Our run line pick follows much the same logic as our moneyline pick. The overvalued public team, in this case, is the defending champion Houston Astros (4-6, minus-3.36 units), and the plucky underdogs are the Pittsburgh Pirates (6-3, plus-4.19 units), who are available at +1.5 (-109) with Pennsylvania betting sites.
The parallels between New York and Houston are obvious. The Pirates, on the other hand, might not inspire the same betting confidence that Cleveland does after winning the AL Central last year. You can still see the similarities, though. Pittsburgh is another Rust Belt city, this time representing the NL Central; both teams have long and painful histories of non-competitiveness, low payrolls, and eternal rebuilding.
The Guardians righted their ship a while back, and if they can do it, so can the Pirates. They’re in Year Four under GM Ben Cherington, who previously led the Boston Red Sox to glory in 2013 after taking over for Theo Epstein.
Tuesday’s projected starters are Cristian Javier (3.87 xFIP in 11 innings) for the Astros and Mitch Keller (3.20 xFIP in 11.2 innings) for Pittsburgh. Keller is the slightly higher-rated of these two young prospects; Javier has been pushed to second in Houston’s starting rotation, thinned out by the departure of Justin Verlander to the New York Mets.
The Run Line Pick
Pittsburgh’s hot start and Houston’s early struggles might be a case of small sample size, and there’s only enough value on the Pirates +1.5 for a slight lean, but the run line is the right play in this matchup with its reasonably low total of eight runs.
MLB Pick: Pirates +1.5 (-109) at BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Tuesday, April 11, 2023 – 06:40 PM EDT at Tropicana Field
Teams Analysis
Speaking of totals, we wrap up our baseball picks with Tuesday’s tilt between the aforementioned Red Sox (Over 6-3) and the Tampa Bay Rays (Over 6-2-1). There’s a total of 7.5 runs on the MLB odds, with -110 attached to the Under; we’ll buy that for a dollar.
It’s never easy betting the Under on a total that low, and as you may have noticed, scoring has gone up with the new rules in play, driving the Over to a 78-58 record (57.4%) thus far. But Shane McClanahan (3.72 xFIP in 12 innings) is due up for the Rays. McClanahan is one of the very best pitchers in baseball today, coming off his first All-Star appearance as a sophomore in 2022. The Under went 14-11 in his 25 starts that year.
The Red Sox have yet to pencil in their starter at press time, but outlets including ESPN have Garrett Whitlock (3.20 xFIP in 2022) making his season debut for Boston. Whitlock is a medium-level prospect coming off a strong rehab stint in his return from last September’s hip surgery.
Tampa’s batting order should be more difficult than what Whitlock faced in Double-A ball. The Rays are first in the majors in hitting value at 4.2 WAR (Wins Above Replacement) according to FanGraphs. And the Red Sox are a surprisingly competitive 11th at 1.5 WAR.
The Over/Under Pick
The projections still have the Rays winning this game 4-3 or thereabouts. Extra innings are certainly a possibility, so keep your bet size small, and may the sphere be with you.
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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