MLB Best Bets for Today (April 12): Slight Lean for Brewers and Marlins

profile image of Jason.Lake

Top MLB Pick of the Day

Brewers vs. Diamondbacks: Brewers ML (-127) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Heritage Sports logo
Brewers ML (-127)
Visit Site

Picks Summary

  • Brewers vs. Diamondbacks: Brewers ML (-127)
  • Marlins vs. Phillies: Marlins +1.5 (-130)
  • Nationals vs. Angels: Over 9 (-108)

Wednesday’s MLB picks include a pair of slightly underrated teams in the Milwaukee Brewers and Miami Marlins.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 03:40 PM EDT at Chase Field

The Moneyline Pick

Some baseball picks are worth investing a big chunk of your bankroll in. Most offer just a slight edge, especially when it comes to the traditional “single” or “straight” bets on the run line, moneyline, and total. The smaller the edge, the smaller your bet size should be for optimal bankroll growth.

It’s still a lot of fun to bet on baseball no matter how much money there is on the line. Our Wednesday 3-pack of MLB picks starts with the Milwaukee Brewers, who are -127 road faves at Heritage Sports as we go to press for their matinee with the Arizona Diamondbacks.

According to the projections at FiveThirtyEight, there’s a sliver of betting value on Milwaukee in this matchup. They’ve got the Brewers winning 57% of the time, for an equivalent “fair” moneyline of -132 using the eternally-lit BMR’s Odds Converter.

Teams Analysis

We’ve talked up the Brewers (7-3, plus-3.35 betting units heading into Tuesday’s action) in this space as a World Series value pick, and sure enough, they’ve already moved from +2000 to +1800 on the MLB odds board at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) since we last checked in.

The Snakes (7-4, plus-6.27 units), meanwhile, have even more long-shot value to win the National League West after slipping from +2500 to +2800. But don’t let those similar records fool you; Milwaukee has been the better team thus far, posting a plus-22 run differential to zero for Arizona.

The Brewers also have the pitching advantage Wednesday with Brandon Woodruff (3.22 FIP) going up against Drey Jameson (6.40 FIP). Bet accordingly.

MLB Pick: Brewers ML (-127) at Heritage Sports

Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies

Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park

The Run Line Pick

Moving to the run line, we’ve got a Miami Marlins team who just misses out on moneyline value as +172 road dogs for Wednesday’s tilt with the Philadelphia Phillies, but they should be worth a slight lean at +1.5 (-130) as established at Pennsylvania betting sites.

We know FiveThirtyEight doesn’t like the moneyline favorites this time. They have Philadelphia’s chances of winning at 64%, or -178 using the Odds Converter. But that doesn’t leave any value for Miami bettors at +172.

Unless they switch to the run line. The Marlins (3-8 RL, minus-6.24 units) happen to be on the road; as a general rule, home teams are more likely than away teams to win by exactly one run, because the home side doesn’t have to bat in the bottom of the ninth if they’re ahead.

We’re also trying to take advantage of a Philly team (4-6 RL, minus-2.90 units) that’s a natural fade candidate after winning the NL pennant last year. They’ve got a minus-10 run differential on the season, and that’s after beating Miami 15-3 on Monday.

Teams Analysis

Sadly, this time it’s Philadelphia with the pitching advantage. Zack Wheeler (3.55 FIP) is due up for the Phils opposite (7.45 FIP) Edward Cabrera, in a battle between a proven All-Star and a young hurler with 23 career starts under his belt.

This still projects to be a fairly low-scoring game, with the total set at 7.5 runs and the Phillies projected to win somewhere on the high side of 4-3. Nothing wrong here with a fun-size bet on Miami +1.5.

MLB Pick: Marlins +1.5 (-130) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Bovada logo
Marlins +1.5 (-130)
Visit Site

Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Angels

Wednesday, April 12, 2023 – 04:07 PM EDT at Angel Stadium

The Over/Under Pick

Now let’s take care of that total. Our last game to look at features the Washington Nationals (Over 6-3-2) visiting the Los Angeles Angels (Over 5-4-1); we’re riding the Over trend that’s gripped the majors, with a record of 83-65 (56.1%) at press time.

In this case, we’ve got a fairly big total of 9 runs on the MLB odds, but with the juice at -108 at Heritage Sports. That makes it considerably easier to bet the Over in a game where the Halos are projected for five runs, and the Nats somewhere between 4-5.

Teams Analysis

It’s still a slight lean, mind you. For one thing, we’re not sure just yet whom Los Angeles will send to the mound – although FiveThirtyEight and their cousins from ESPN seem to think it’ll be Griffin Canning, a third-year northpaw who won a Gold Glove in 2020 but has otherwise struggled in his young career.

The Nationals have officially penciled in MacKenzie Gore (4.01 FIP) for this matchup, a sophomore lefty who pitched for San Diego last year before coming to D.C. in the Juan Soto trade. Gore is a solid prospect who’s allowed just three earned runs in 11.1 innings pitched this year.

Washington will almost certainly have to go to the bullpen at some point, and that’s where things get shaky; the Nats are No. 21 in bullpen value according to FanGraphs at 0.0 WAR. The Halos (0.6 WAR) are sixth, though, so keep that bet size small, and may the sphere be with you.

MLB Pick: Over 9 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Heritage Sports logo
Over 9 (-108)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.