MLB Best Bets for July 2: Not Many Markers in Miami Wednesday
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LT Profits
- July 2, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Twins/Marlins Under 8.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We had a 1-1 split on Tuesday with our third play rained out, leaving us at a still solid 55-34-2 over our last 91 Major League Baseball picks. We are back on Wednesday for a huge 18-game slate of MLB betting matchups, necessitated by three make-up doubleheaders. And we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with all three of our selections for Wednesday happening to be totals. As always, we have searched for the best odds available across the top sportsbooks.
Minnesota Twins vs. Miami Marlins
Wednesday, July 02, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at loanDepot park
We are looking for a sneaky pitching duel in Miami between two relatively unheralded starters. This has us backing the Under when Janson Junk and the Marlins host Simeon Woods Richardson and the Twins on Wednesday.
Thou Shalt Not Walk
Junk has made seven appearances for Miami since being recalled on May 24th with two of those being starts. And after allowing just one run in five innings in his first start, he had his worst game of the season at San Francisco last time out, allowing five runs in 3.2 innings. Still, he maintained his impeccable command by not walking a single batter in the rough outing, and we like his chances for a bounce-back effort tonight.
Even with that last stinker, Janson still has a 3.73 ERA and a very good 3.12 xFIP through 31.1 innings, and while his strikeout rate is mediocre at 7.47/9, it is accompanied by a great walk rate of 0.57/9 with only two walks issued all season! He has changed his mix from previous years by throwing more sliders (45.5%) than fastballs (36.9%) this year, with good results prior to the shaky last start.
The increased slider usage has helped raise Junk’s groundball rate to 40.8% this season from 34.2% last year, which mixes well with the great K/BB ratio. He is facing a Minnesota offense that has lacked pop against right-handers on the road, with a below-average wRC+ of 97 and a 17th ranking in OPS at .702 in that split.
Improved Velocity
Woods Richardson has modest overall numbers at 3-4 with a 4.63 ERA and an identical perfectly aligning xFIP. However, he has been a much better pitcher over his last three starts, allowing a total of three earned runs over those outings including tossing five scoreless innings while allowing just two hits vs. the Mariners last time out.
And the best part is that this improvement from Simeon has coincided with a rise in velocity, meaning that he should continue to pitch well, provided that improved velocity is “real”. Yes, his fastball Stuff+ for the season remains at a low 82, but it suddenly graded out at 97 last time out when he had six strikeouts against one walk.
His recent form has raised his K-Rate for the season to 8.02/9, and he now gets to face a Miami offense ranked 23rd in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 99, a figure that drops to 94 here at home.
The Pick
So, while neither of these starting pitchers are elite, Junk has been effective all year, while Woods Richardson is improving with every start, and both are facing offenses in their suspect splits.
Bet on the Under in South Beach on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Marlins 4 – Twins 2
MLB Pick: Twins/Marlins Under 8.5 (-115) at Bookmaker
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, July 02, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
We do not expect a ton of scoring in Arlington Wednesday night, so we are betting on the Under when Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers host Tomoyuki Sugano and the Orioles.
Deserves a Better Record
Eovaldi deserves better than a 4-3 record through 13 starts covering 72.1 innings this season, as his 1.87 ERA is fourth best in the majors among pitchers with at least 70 innings and his 2.79 xFIP is sixth best in that group! In fact, he has yet to allow more than three runs in any of his 13 starts, and he has allowed two earned runs or less in 11 of them.
Nathan has a great combination of a superb K/BB ratio of 9.33/1.49 per nine innings and a great groundball rate of 50.5%. He is showing no signs of slowing down at the age of 35, as he is still generating a very good swinging strike rate of 13.3%. He is also showing his guile with his most frequently thrown pitch now being his splitter that has a 104 rating on Stuff+, contributing to his spike in groundballs.
He can now take advantage of an aggressive Baltimore lineup that is fourth in the majors in offensive strikeout rate at 23.7%.
Improving the Bullpen Helps
Now, the “rookie” Sugano has not matched the success he had in Japan in this first season in the Major Leagues at the age of 35. He enters at 6-4 with a 4.06 ERA and an unsightly 4.63 xFIP. With that said, he has been a much better pitcher away from Camden Yards, as he has an impressive 3.22 ERA on the road.
In fact, 8 of Tomoyuki’s 16 starts have come on the road, and he allowed three earned runs or less in all eight of them! He does have a very varied arsenal with six different pitches that he has thrown over 10% of the time. His best pitch is a slider that is his second most frequent pitch at 18.9%, as it has a 107 rating in Stuff+ with good horizontal movement.
Once Sugano leaves the game, the Baltimore bullpen has greatly improved since a dreadful start, now sneaking up to 10th in the majors in xFIP at 3.94 by ranking second in the league in that metric since June 1st at 3.38. And of course, it helps to face a Texas offense ranked 26th in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 88.
The Pick
To summarize, Eovaldi has yet to allow more than three runs in a game this year, while Sugano has pitched much better on the road, is facing a suspect offense and has the support of a hot bullpen. We are backing the Under at Globe Life Field on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Rangers 4 – Orioles 2
MLB Pick: Orioles/Rangers Under 8.5 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, July 02, 2025– 09:40 PM EDT at Chase Field
With the roof scheduled to be closed at Chase Field, we are supporting the Under when Merrill Kelly and the Diamondbacks host Landen Roupp and the Giants Wednesday night.
Best Season in Majors?
The veteran Kelly is 36 years old, but he appears to be having his best season in the Major Leagues since entering the league in 2019 after beginning his professional career in Korea. He comes in at 7-4 through 17 starts covering 98 innings with a nice 3.49 ERA and a career-best 3.28 xFIP that ranks a commendable 17th in the majors. He has allowed three earned runs of less in four of his last five starts including two scoreless outings during this span.
We are normally skeptical of pitchers having breakout years at an advanced age, but Merrill has never been a power pitcher, and his fastball velocity this year of 91.8 MPH remains in line with his career average of 92.1 MPH. His strength is variety as Kelly has six pitches, five of which he has thrown at least 10% of the time.
This has resulted in a very good strikeout rate of 9.18/9 combined with a good groundball rate of 45.3%. And the K-Rate is not a fluke considering his swinging strike rate is back up to 11.2% after dipping to 9.3% last season.
No Earned Runs Last Two Starts
Roupp showed promise as a rookie by posting a 3.58 ERA over 50.1 innings last year while splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen, and he has been very consistent in his first year as a fulltime starter this year. He may be just 6-5, but he has a 3.43 ERA through 16 starts while allowing three earned runs of less in 13 of them and four earned runs in two others, leaving just one truly bad outing.
Moreover, he allowed just one unearned run over his last two starts, making it five times this season that he has not allowed any earned runs. While he has not matched the double-digit strikeout rates he had in the minors, that rate is still good at 8.19/9, especially when combined with a good groundball rate of 45.9%. He has also continued his pattern as a rookie by maintaining a low hard contact rate of 25.7% after that rate was 25.2% in 2024.
And naturally, all pitchers benefit from the closed roof in Arizona, as the ball does not carry as well as it does in the dessert air when the roof is open.
The Pick
In the end, we see both pitchers having success here on Wednesday, prompting us to bet on the Under in this spot.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 4 – Giants 2
MLB Pick: Giants/Diamondbacks Under 8.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
