MLB All-Star Game Best Bets: Expect a Low-Scoring Affair

The Angle

As bettors, we have to approach the All-Star game differently.

This isn’t your typical regular-season game where a starter tries to go at least five innings and where batters play the entire game. Instead, pitchers will last maybe an inning. Batters might get two at-bats, but will probably only get one at-bat.

As such, there is generally no way to tell which pitcher will face which batter. So, matchup breakdowns don’t really work in the way that they do for a normal regular-season game. We can’t just look at all of the players and figure out which side is better, because, by itself, this is an exercise in pretty much groundless speculation.

The best way to approach this game is to look at All-Star Game history.

All-Star Games are uniform in the sense that, every year, the rosters generally consist of the best players in each respective league. Given this uniformity, All-Star Game history affords bettors a data sample on which a reliable bet can be based.

What History Tells Us

History shows that the “under” is a must-play for every All-Star Game.

The fact that last year’s All-Star Game totaled eight runs can only make us more confident in the “under” for this year’s game — it is sound, statistical logic to expect things to return to normal after an anomalous event takes place.

Last year’s All-Star Game was the first one to exceed seven runs since 2018. Since then, the All-Star Game finished with seven runs in 2019, seven runs in 2021, five runs in 2022, and five runs in 2023. Currently, the “under” is on a 5-2 All-Star Game run.

With this history, it would make sense for oddsmakers to post the total at 6.5, as a half-run makes a significant difference in such a low-scoring game. Until oddsmakers do this, the under 7 is a must-play, as oddsmakers continue to underappreciate the importance of pitching.

Great Pitching Trumps Great Hitting

This “under” trend exists because great pitchers tend to have an edge on great hitters.

For example, arguably the NL’s most feared hitter, Shohei Ohtani, is 1-for-9 with zero walks and a strikeout against AL starter Tarik Skubal. Similarly, NL starter Paul Skenes has struck out arguably the AL’s most feared hitter Aaron Judge in Judge’s only at-bat against him.

Even Great Hitters Fail—Especially in the All-Star Game

Percentages are a great way to illustrate my point.

Consider that great hitters get a hit 30 percent of the time (that is, they bat .300). This percentage is as “high” as it is only because they tend to face lower-quality pitchers — guys like Skubal are the exception except in the All-Star Game, of course, in which both sides are stacked with top-notch pitchers with sub-three ERAs.

Obviously, if they only faced guys like Skenes, then their BA would be significantly lower.

In tonight’s game, they will get one or two at-bats. Statistically speaking, it is reasonable to expect any single batter — including the absolute best batters, such as Ohtani — to fail to get a single hit.

Over the course of a game, a few guys will get hits, of course, but, as history indicates, they won’t get nearly enough hits to threaten our “under.”

MLB Pick: Under 7 (+101) at BetOnline

Under 7 (+101)

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MVP Selection: A Historical Consideration

For All-Star Game MVP betting, history tells us that there is immense value in the lower-profile batters — pitchers in general rarely win the award.

Last year, for example, the All-Star Game MVP was Boston’s Jarren Duran. It was not even Ohtani, who belted three RBIs earlier in the game. Two years ago, Colorado catcher Elias Diaz was the All-Star Game MVP.

Why This Is The Case

Lower-profile players are likely to be named All-Star Game MVP because they will enter the game later.

With the best players of each league competing against each other, the overall matchup tends to be rather even. Moreover, as explained, it tends to result in a lower-scoring affair.

A lower-scoring game means a closer affair, which makes it easier for a player entering the contest late to make a difference and decide the game. Because those later-entering players are lower-profile, they are priced the way they are.

We have a great chance here to cash in the way we did last night with Junior Caminero making the Home Run Derby final round. All we need to do is pick the right surprise player.

My Pick for All-Star Game MVP

My choice for All-Star Game MVP is Brent Rooker.

Rooker is hitting the ball really well right now. He finished the first half of the season on a six-game hitting streak. In July, he is batting .317 and slugging .634.

I like Rooker because one must expect him to play with an extra edge. He was snubbed from the All-Star Game last year. This year, he was controversially ousted in the Home Run Derby when, instead of a swing-off with eventual champion Cal Raleigh, the supposedly perfectly accurate ball-tracker determined that Raleigh’s longest home run went a tenth of an inch longer than Rooker’s longest one.

It would be poetic for Rooker to triumph tonight with a late-game decisive at-bat.

MLB Pick: Brent Rooker All-Star Game MVP  (+5000) at BetOnline

Brent Rooker All-Star Game MVP (+5000)

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