MLB Pick: Angels ML (+133) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a typically full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday, available at top sportsbooks, with every team in action.
These three best bets with current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in Anaheim Friday with the Mariners visiting the Angels.
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Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, July 12, 2024 – 09:38 PM ET at Angel Stadium
We are calling for an upset in a battle of two pitchers with deceptive ERAs on Friday, so we are backing Tyler Anderson and the Angels as nice underdogs hosting Bryan Woo and the Mariners.
Overvalued?
Woo comes in at 3-1 with a spiffy 1.77 ERA through 40.2 innings after having his season delayed by injury. However, that ERA is simply not “real” over a relatively small sampling given his substantially higher 4.00 xFIP. Woo has been the beneficiary of a very low .198 BABIP allowed and a high 80.2% strand rate, neither of which is sustainable.
Bryan has a low strikeout rate of 6.20/9 and an unspectacular groundball rate of 36.5%, so he can certainly be classified as an air-contact pitcher. That makes the low BABIP stand out even more, so the ERA is certain to rise once that stabilizes. And let us not forget that Woo is being activated from his second stint on the injured list this season with a hamstring injury to take this start. That brittleness makes him seem even more overvalued here as a decided road favorite.
Not Great but Good Enough
Now, we are not fans of Tyler Anderson either, as he too has a deceptive ERA of 2.81 compared to a bloated 5.05 xFIP. But this play is about value, as in a matchup of two overachieving pitchers, we cannot justify one (Woo) being such a big favorite on the road.
As bad as Tyler’s peripherals are, at least one area where he has been good is limiting hard contact, with a solid soft/hard contact ratio of 16.7% / 26.0%. It also helps the southpaw is facing a Seattle offense ranked 21st in wRC+ against left-handers at 96, as well as 24th in OPS against them at only .675.
The Pick
Normally we would look to fade Anderson, but considering he is a good price at home against an equally overachieving opponent, we think the price is right to back him in this spot against a below-average offense. Therefore, take the Angels as home underdogs.
Predicted Score: Angels 5 – Mariners 4
MLB Pick: Angels ML (+133) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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