MLB Pick: Under 8 (-112) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We have a full 15-game MLB betting slate for Friday and here are the three plays we believe offer the best betting value at the current MLB odds available at top sportsbooks.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in Friday’s Guardians vs. Rays matchup.
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Cleveland Guardians vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, July 12, 2024 – 06:50 PM ET at Tropicana Field
We think runs will be hard to come by in Tampa when the underrated Taj Bradley and the Rays play hosts to Carlos Carrasco and the AL Central-leading Guardians. Thus, we are backing the Under on Friday.
Under the Radar
Bradley comes in at just 3-4, but he has actually pitched very well while getting poor run support. After an erratic rookie season last year, he has developed nicely in his sophomore season with a very good 3.23 ERA and a validating 3.32 xFIP through 11 starts. He has a lethal combination of an electric fastball that averages 96.3 MPH and is rated 124 in Stuff+ and a late-sinking splitter with a Stuff+ of 122.
That arsenal has produced an excellent strikeout rate of 11.30/9 which is supported by a fine 13.2% swinging-strike rate. Taj has now allowed two runs or less in six consecutive starts, yet that great form has slipped under the radar as he is just 2-1 in those outings due to the quiet Tampa Bay bats. That is obviously no fault of his own, and a repeat of that trend would be a major boon to the Under here.
Pitching Better
Now, Carlos Carrasco is a disappointing 3-6 with a 5.22 ERA while pitching for the team that currently owns the best record in the American League at 57-35. The news is not all bad however as his xFIP is nearly a full run lower at 4.24 and he has been quite consistent since May 1st after a poor first month of the season.
In fact, Carlos has allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his 10 starts since the end of April, including his last four consecutive starts. He has a 4.53 ERA in those 10 outings that is skewed by the two non-quality starts where he allowed a total of 10 runs in nine innings, as well as a much better 3.81 xFIP over 53.2 innings.
The Pick
He is facing an inconsistent Tampa Bay offense that remains below average vs. right-handed pitchers overall with a wRC+ of 94.
With Bradley pitching extremely well without any run support and Carrasco pitching consistently well over the last two months, bet the Under in Tampa.
Predicted Score: Guardians 3 – Rays 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-112) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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