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Guardians vs. Twins MLB Best Bet: Bibee to Bust Minnesota Festa-val
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LT Profits
- August 11, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are currently on a 22-13 run in our last 35 plays entering Sunday’s slate of MLB betting matchups including a +136 winner Friday. As usual, we have three more best bets for today’s slate that we feel hold great value at the current MLB odds at top sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in the Twin Cities on Sunday with the Guardians visiting the Twins.
And don’t forget to check out our other picks:
Cleveland Guardians vs. Minnesota Twins
Sunday, August 11, 2024 – 02:10 PM ET at Target Field
We see a big pitching advantage for Tanner Bibee of the Guardians in Minnesota facing David Festa of the Twins. We are backing Cleveland at a cheap price on the road Sunday.
Cleared After Injury
Bibee has not pitched since July 29th due to shoulder soreness but has now been given a clean bill of health and has been cleared to take this start. And it certainly did not look like the shoulder was bothering him over his last three starts while allowing a total of three runs in 16.2 innings.
Tanner comes in at 9-4 for the season with a 3.48 ERA and a mostly aligning 3.62 xFIP. After a nice rookie season last year, he has taken the next step this second season with a very good K/BB ratio of 9.76/2.29 per nine innings. The key there has been an increased usage relative to last year of his slider (115 Stuff+) and cutter (120).
And if the Guardians are conservative with Bibee due to his shoulder, the Cleveland bullpen leads all of baseball in both ERA (2.67) and xFIP (3.57).
Lot Of Home Runs Allowed
Festa comes in at 2-2 with a 5.55 ERA, and while that is only over five appearances (four starts) covering 24.1 innings, his hard contact rate is already a red flag. Granted, he has an excellent K/BB ratio of 11.10/2.22 per nine innings, but it is what happens when he is not striking people out that is the concern.
You see, David has a very low groundball rate of 30.3% that is actually lower than his hard contact rate of 32.8%. And not too surprisingly, all that hard contact in the air has resulted in six home runs allowed already in those 24.1 innings, which works out to a hideous home runs allowed rate of 2.22/9.
Therefore, we are betting on the Guardians to score enough runs in support of Bibee and their great bullpen to secure this road win at a reasonable price.
Predicted Score: Guardians 5 – Twins 3
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
