Georgia vs. Alabama College Football Week 5 Pick: Crimson Tide Ready To Upset Bulldogs

We’re not going to overthink this one. Three games into the 2024 FBS season, there isn’t much separating the No. 2 Georgia Bulldogs from the No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide. Alongside the No. 1 Texas Longhorns, these are the top programs in college football’s top conference, the almighty SEC. So of course, we’re putting ‘Bama in Saturday’s Week 5 NCAAF picks as 2.5-point home dogs at Bookmaker.

If only we’d been there at the open. The Crimson Tide hit the board at +5.5 versus the 2021 and 2022 national champions; it’s tempting to look elsewhere for our college football picks now that we’re on the wrong side of the magic number 3, but +2.5 is still the right call as we go to press, even if we have to lower our bet size in response.

Is ‘Bama Better Than Georgia?

Maybe. We have to be careful about sample sizes and all that, but Sports Reference has Alabama (plus-31.24 SRS) well ahead of Georgia (plus-18.77 SRS) according to their Simple Rating System, which incorporates margin of victory and strength of schedule.

Alabama (3-0 SU, 2-1 ATS) has been crushing it on both fronts. They were still monster non-conference home faves over Western Kentucky (+34) and South Florida (+30.5), barely missing a payday versus the latter; meanwhile, Georgia (3-0 SU, 1-2 ATS) failed to cover Tennessee Tech (+54.5 away) in Week 2 before eking out a 13-12 victory over Kentucky (+21.5 at home) in Week 3.

Don’t write off Kirby Smart’s program just yet. More complicated statistical models have Georgia on top in this matchup – like the F+ Ratings at BCF Toys, which have the Bulldogs ranked No. 1 overall (No. 6 offense, No. 1 defense, No. 6 special teams) and Alabama fourth (No. 7 offense, No. 4 defense, No. 41 special teams).

Suffice to say, these are two outstanding teams getting ready to do battle. So if the online sportsbooks are going to make Alabama a home dog for the first time since 2007, of course, we’re going to take them as 2.5-point puppies at Bryant-Denny Stadium, one of the toughest venues in college football.

Why Are the Tide Underdogs?

Because Nick Saban isn’t there anymore, they say football is a “coaches” sport, and that’s doubly true with college football – just ask any fan who’s school has cycled through the rummage bin of has-beens, never-weres, and never-will-bes, instead of hiring a head coach with a proven track record.

Alabama doesn’t play that way. Saban may be gone, but the Kalen DeBoer Era is already off to a strong start in Tuscaloosa; after leading the Washington Huskies to the National Championship Game, DeBoer leapt at the opportunity to join the SEC and replace Saban as the head of what might be college football’s most important program.

DeBoer didn’t come alone, either. The reigning AP Coach of the Year is joined by offensive co-ordinator Nick Sheridan, who was DeBoer’s tight ends coach at Washington. As expected, this combo is getting premium results from fourth-year QB Jalen Milroe; the way ‘Bama has held up on defense with Kane Wommack replacing co-ordinator Kevin Steele may be even more impressive – cornerbacks coach Maurice Linguist deserves his moment in the spotlight as well.

Takeaway

Speaking of whom, Linguist replaces Travaris Robinson, who is now Georgia’s co-DC and safeties coach under Smart. These two SEC rivals know each other inside and out, and now that they’re no longer separated into East and West divisions, we’re going to see this kind of marquee matchup a lot more often during the regular season – just like the fat cats want it. Bet accordingly.

NCAAF Pick: Alabama +2.5 (-110) at Bookmaker

Alabama +2.5 (-110)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.