Dodgers vs. Padres MLB Best Bet: Los Angeles Success To Cease in San Diego
-
LT Profits
- July 31, 2024
MLB Pick: Padres ML (-126) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We return today with three plays that we feel hold great betting value at the current MLB odds after going a perfect 3-0 on Sunday, making it 15-6 in our last 21 plays.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in San Diego, where our model favors a side when the Dodgers visit the Padres, according to top sportsbooks.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, visit our MLB World Series betting page.
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Cubs vs. Reds and Dodgers vs. Padres games.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 – 08:40 PM ET at Petco Park
Coming Off No-Hitter
The first-place Dodgers have a 5.5-game lead over the second-place Padres in the NL West, but we are siding with the runners-up from San Diego Wednesday with Dylan Cease facing Clayton Kershaw.
Cease tossed the second no-hitter in Padres’ history last Thursday while recording nine strikeouts. And unlike some Complete Game no-hitters, he was not terribly extended throwing 114 pitches, so we are not concerned about arm fatigue, especially pitching on five days’ rest instead of the usual four.
While that last outing was a highlight, Dylan Cease has been great all year and deserves better than his 10-8 record. He comes in with a 3.50 ERA and a better 3.13 xFIP that ranks seventh best in baseball, keyed by an outstanding strikeout rate of 11.54/9. He has also improved his walk rate to a career-low 2.75/9 and had allowed exactly one hit in each of his previous two starts before the no-no.
Thus, he is working on a streak of 22 scoreless innings in his last three outings while allowing a total of two hits with 30 strikeouts against seven walks.
He Is Back
Clayton Kershaw made his belated season debut last week following surgery on his left (throwing) shoulder, and he looked decent allowing two runs on six hits with six strikeouts in four innings. The Dodgers probably do not want to extend Kershaw too far just yet, so he may not go much beyond five innings in this start either.
The bad news is that his fastball averaged just 90.6 MPH in his return start, and he allowed a 33.3% hard-contact rate. Clayton will probably improve with each start, but considering the raging form that Cease is in, we do not think he is ready quite yet to meet this challenge.
The Pick
We think this line seems rather low, which may have a lot to do with Kershaw’s reputation. But as mentioned, we think it will take a few starts before he reaches peak form, so we will gladly back the red-hot Cease at a reasonable price in this spot.
Predicted Score: Padres 5 – Dodgers 3
MLB Pick: Padres ML (-126) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
