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Dodgers vs. Athletics MLB Best Bet: Oakland To Score Straight A’s vs. LA
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LT Profits
- August 4, 2024
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MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+135) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We are currently on a 17-10 run in our last 27 plays entering Sunday’s full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups. As usual, we have three more best bets from top sportsbooks for today’s slate that we feel hold great value.
These best bets and current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model favors a side in the Bay Area Sunday with the Dodgers visiting the Athletics.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Oakland Athletics
Sunday, August 04, 2024 – 04:07 PM ET at Oakland Coliseum
This Will Not Last
We are predicting an upset in Oakland as we do not feel the Dodgers should be favored by this much with the unproven River Ryan on the mound. Therefore, we are backing Osvaldo Bido and the Athletics as home underdogs on Sunday.
River Ryan has allowed one earned run in 11 innings over his first two Major League starts, equating to a 0.82 ERA. Keep in mind however that Ryan is not a highly-rated prospect, and he was only recalled to help fill a void in a depleted Dodger rotation. To wit, his xFIP stands at 4.90 mainly due to a horrific walk rate.
Those walks stand at 4.91/9, and while that is over just 11 innings, it continues a pattern as his walk rate was right around 4.00 in every minor league season before this one. Furthermore, he has been lucky with a .222 BABIP allowed and an 83.3% strand rate so far. This is not the type of pitcher we want to back as a decided road favorite after two Major League starts with a deceptive ERA.
Stuff Should Catch Up to ERA
Now, we totally get that Bido owns a 5.00 ERA and 5.32 xFIP while going 2-2 over nine appearances (three starts) covering 27 innings. However, we feel that Bido offers more upside in the long run, and getting him as an underdog at home is a nice benefit.
You see, Osvaldo Bido grades out nicely on Stuff+ at 105, with a lethal slider graded at 131 to go along with an above-average fastball (101) and sinker (104). That arsenal has produced a nice strikeout rate of 9.33/9 and a very good soft contact rate of 24.4%. Also, the bloated ERA is skewed by allowing seven earned runs in 3.2 innings last time out after allowing a grand total of eight earned runs over his first eight appearances.
The Pick
At this price, we are willing to bet that the last start by Bido was an outlier, while Ryan is almost certain to see negative regression. Take the A’s to upset as home dogs.
Predicted Score: Athletics 5 – Dodgers 4
MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+135) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
