Cubs vs. Reds MLB Best Bet: Lodolo To Make Chicago See Red
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LT Profits
- July 31, 2024
MLB Pick: Reds ML (-140) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We are now 15-6 in our last 21 plays entering Wednesday’s MLB betting matchups following a 3-0 sweep Sunday. We are back today with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in the Queen City in the Cubs vs. Reds matchup Wednesday.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, check out our MLB World Series betting page.
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Cubs vs. Reds and Dodgers vs. Padres games.
Chicago Cubs vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, July 31, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Great American Ball Park
Very Reliable
Nick Lodolo had developed into a frontline starter for the Reds this season, and we are backing him Wednesday hosting Kyle Hendricks and the Cubs.
Lodolo showed nice flashes for the Reds as a rookie in 2022 before injuries limited him to just seven starts last season. Well, he is healthy now and made great progress in what is effectively his second full season, as he is 8-3 with a 3.45 ERA and 3.84 xFIP. He has combined a very good K/BB ratio of 9.26/2.56 per nine innings with a nice groundball rate of 48.0%, a combination we always like to see.
Nick Lodolo has been very reliable as he has yet to allow more than four runs in any of his 16 starts while allowing three earned runs or less in 12 of those outings. It also helps that his hard contact rate of 27.8% is at its lowest rate of his brief career.
The southpaw is facing a Cubs lineup ranked just 23rd in the majors in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers at 92, and also 23rd in OPS against them at .682.
Is He Finished?
Hendricks is now 34 years old and having his worst Major League season after posting a 3.74 ERA just last year. He comes in at 2-9 with a hideous 6.95 ERA, and while his xFIP is a bit better, it is still not great at 4.45. Hendricks has always relied on a great change-up thrown with the same motion as his fastball, but that change is now losing effect due to his average fastball velocity being a mere 87.9 MPH.
Kyle Hendricks was demoted to the bullpen earlier this year, where he actually pitched well and was re-inserted in the starting rotation on June 19th. And he appeared to have figured things out with five Quality Starts in six starts since rejoining the rotation prior to last Friday. However, he then floundered badly, allowing six earned runs on eight hits in five innings.
Furthermore, Hendricks has a low strikeout rate of 6.27/9 which is validated by a career-worst swinging strike rate of 7.7%.
The Pick
We think there is a much bigger disparity between Lodolo and Hendricks than this line indicates. Thus, we are betting the Reds at home.
Predicted Score: Reds 7 – Cubs 4
MLB Pick: Reds ML (-140) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
