Conference Championship Games Value Picks: Iowa to Keep it Close

profile image of Swinging.Johnson
The Iowa Hawkeyes run out onto the field before playing the the Kentucky Wildcats. Carly Mackler/Getty Images/AFP

Top NCAAF Pick: Iowa +23 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Heritage Sports logo
Iowa +23 ½ (-108)
Visit Site

Last week, we went 2-1 ATS for the second consecutive week with LSU and Florida State getting us the covers we needed, while Louisville failed to show in their game against Kentucky.

The conference championships have arrived so let’s scour the board yet again and find the loosest lines at the best offshore sportsbooks and make some more money in college football. Time to break down the NCAAF odds!

Michigan Wolverines vs. Iowa Hawkeyes

Saturday, December 02, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Lucas Oil Stadium

Key Facts

  • Iowa is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games.
  • Iowa is 14-2 SU in their last 16 games played on a Saturday.
  • Iowa is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games when installed as the underdog.

I have no illusions that the Hawkeyes will upset the Wolverines and throw an enormous monkey wrench into the College Football Playoff picture. No, Michigan will defeat Iowa in this battle at Lucas Field, home of the Indianapolis Colts, but doesn’t the line seem exorbitant?

I understand the Hawkeyes have had a fairly easy schedule, with the only ranked team coming in the fourth week of the season when they were blasted by No. 7 Penn State, 31-0, and mustered a total of 76 offensive yards. That was a bad game but Michigan didn’t exactly cover themselves in glory when edging Maryland, 31-24, as 17 ½ point favorites two weeks ago.

The Pick

I believe Iowa’s defense, ranked 4th in the nation and surrendering just over 12 points per game, will be able to keep this within the generous margins. We should also note that this could very well be a trap game for Michigan, still reveling in their 30-24 win over their archrivals from Ohio State last week and looking ahead to their CFP semifinal date.

Grab the points with Iowa.

NCAAF Pick: Iowa +23 ½ (-108) at Heritage Sports

Heritage Sports logo
Iowa +23 ½ (-108)
Visit Site

Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide

Saturday, December 02, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

Key Facts

  • Georgia is 1-7 SU in their last 8 games against Alabama.
  • Alabama is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.
  • Alabama is 10-0 SU in their last 10 games.

I have to be honest; I was thrilled to see the Tide struggle against Auburn last week in the Iron Bowl because had they blown the Tigers out then we would never have gotten Bama +5 ½ like we are getting as of this Sunday night writing.

As good as Georgia is this season, we should be aware that Alabama has won 7 of their last 8 meetings against the perennial powerhouse from Athens. Georgia’s passing game under junior quarterback Carson Beck is impressive, but the Tide has a solid pass defense and will likely be creating havoc in the Bulldogs backfield with a steady stream of blitz packages to keep Beck scrambling.

The Pick

These are two of the best teams in the nation on neutral territory and I cannot help but believe the line is this steep because the betting public will be laying it and liking it on Georgia regardless of the line.

Fade the public and bet the hound.

NCAAF Pick: Alabama +5 ½ (-115) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Bovada logo
Alabama +5 ½ (-115)
Visit Site

SMU Mustangs vs. Tulane Green Wave

Saturday, December 02, 2023 – 04:00 PM ET at Yulman Stadium

Key Facts

  • SMU is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games against Tulane.
  • SMU is 6-0 SU in their last 6 games against an AAC opponent.
  • Tulane is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games played on a Saturday.

The SMU Mustangs have owned its conference rival over the past several years, winning 7 of their last 8 meetings, yet the oddsmakers are giving the Mustangs a four-point head start in this clash of AAC powers.

That’s not chump change considering we get the Mustangs flying past the magic 3 and onto another critical number, 4, which gives us even more reason to get down on the road dog in this one.

Those who are partial to Tulane will be dwelling on the Green Wave’s solid performance against UTSA last week, in which they defeated the Roadrunners, 29-16, and easily covered as 3 ½ point home chalk. But I would submit that SMU’s 59-14 win over Navy last week was just as impressive, even though the opponent was not as dangerous.

The Pick

Both teams boast top 20 defenses, but SMU separates themselves from the Wave on offense, where they are ranked 16th in passing yards (292 YPG) and 6th in scoring, averaging nearly 41 points per game. Tulane does not have the same offensive juice, ranked 71st in passing yards (221 YPG), 58th in rushing (167 YPG), and 63rd in scoring, averaging 27.8 points per game.

I like SMU to win this one outright and if you do too then consider betting them on the money line at +160. Otherwise, grab the +4 and cash a ticket.

NCAAF Pick: SMU +4 (-108) at Heritage Sports

Heritage Sports logo
SMU +4 (-108)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.