College Football Week 13 Early Value Analysis: LSU Primed to Roll Over Texas A&M

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Jayden Daniels #5 of the LSU Tigers throws the ball during the first half against the Florida Gators at Tiger Stadium on November 11, 2023. Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images/AFP

Top NCAAF Pick: LSU -10 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)

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LSU -10 (-110)
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The online betting sites post early NCAAF odds for a reason and we like to see where the lines go so that we can take advantage of underdogs getting too many points or favorites laying too few.

Last week we came oh so close to a sweep with Oregon State and TCU cashing but North Carolina missing an ATS cover by just a whisker. So, now let’s scour the board again this week and find the loosest lines at the best offshore sportsbooks and make some more money in college football!

Florida State Seminoles vs. Florida Gators

Saturday, November 25, 2023 – 7:00 PM ET at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium

Key Facts

  • Florida State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing at Florida.
  • Florida is 4-8 ATS in their last 12 games.
  • Florida is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games played on a Saturday when playing at home.

The Gators would love to send their guests home crying but that is an unlikely result considering the disparity between these neighborhood rivals. The Seminoles suffered a major blow to their CFP aspirations when they dropped from No. 4 to No. 5, supplanted by Washington, after last week’s games.

Although Florida State remains undefeated, they have failed to cover their last three games, and in college football, rankings are not only predicated on if you win but by how much. That’s why this game is so important because they only have this week and next, when they play Louisville for the ACC title, to prove they belong as one of the four CFP entries.

The Pick

I expect the Noles to absolutely punish the Gators on Saturday night and getting the vastly better team laying less than a touchdown smacks of nothing but value. Florida’s defense ranks 70th against the pass, 88th against the run, and 88th in points allowed surrendering 161.5 yards per game. That won’t cut it against this explosive FSU offense. Lay it and like it with the Noles.

NCAAF Pick: Florida State -6½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Florida State -6½ (-110)
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Kentucky Wildcats vs. Louisville Cardinals

Saturday, November 25, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Cardinal Stadium

Key Facts

  • Kentucky is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • Louisville is 11-0 SU in their last 11 games at home.
  • Louisville is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games played on a Saturday.

Kentucky enters this matchup on a two-game skid including a 49-21 loss to powerhouse Alabama and last week getting edged, 17-14, by South Carolina and failing to cover as 2 ½ point road underdogs. Speaking of ATS covers, the Wildcats have been money-burners lately, failing to cover the number in 5 of their last 6 games.

On the flip side, Louisville is hot off the heels of an impressive 38-31 win in Miami as 1-point road underdogs and are looking to play the role of spoiler when they meet Florida State in the ACC championship game next week where they are hoping to bounce the Seminoles from CFP contention.

The Pick

The question is, will the Cardinals be looking ahead to that game and therefore overlooking Kentucky? It’s a valid concern but I don’t think they will. The Wildcats are overmatched in every major statistical category and the 6 ½ points we are laying should be a walk in the park for the vastly superior Cardinals.

NCAAF Pick: Louisville -6 ½ (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

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Louisville -6 ½ (-113)
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Texas A&M Aggies vs. LSU Tigers

Saturday, November 25, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Tiger Stadium

Key Facts

  • Texas A&M is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games.
  • Texas A&M is 1-11 ATS in their last 12 games against LSU.
  • LSU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games.

The Aggies got a cupcake on their schedule last week when they faced FCS entry, Abilene Christian, and were harnessed as 40-point home chalk. Well, Texas A&M won the game handily, 38-10, but failed to get the cover and disappointed all the chalk-eaters who thought this was going to be a true-blue blowout.

LSU also caught a break in their schedule last week when they welcomed Sun Belt challenger, Georgia State, to the Bayou. The oddsmakers tagged the Tigers as 32-point favorites, a week after they defeated Florida, 52-35, and covered as 15-point home chalk. This proved to be an even bigger blowout as LSU defeated the Panthers, 56-14, and covered for the second consecutive game.

The Pick

We’ve got value in this game as the number has spiked a half point since the opener to -10 ½ at all the majors, but there is one holdout and the time is right to pounce. Let’s watch the scoring juggernaut that is the LSU Tigers run roughshod over the Aggies in this one and lay the -10 over at Bookmaker. We should also keep in mind LSU is 9-1 against the spread over their last 10 games against A&M.

NCAAF Pick: LSU -10 (-110) at Bookmaker

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.