NCAAF Pick: Tennessee +4 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
As we approach November and the sports equinox is upon us, it’s somewhat disheartening to realize that the conclusion of the NCAAF regular season is just about a month away. The Conference Championship games are taking place in early December, and then it’s Bowl Season. Let’s not dwell on that gloomy future. Instead, let’s shift our focus to our college football Week 9 editor’s picks.
Last week, we went 3-3 ATS, with the outcome of the Auburn game hinging on a half-point, determining whether our weekend was profitable or not.
With that in mind, let’s look ahead to some exciting matchups. The PAC-12’s carnage continues as Oregon heads to Utah, which is likely to be the game of the week. Regrettably, our picks for that game didn’t make the cut as we are searching for value elsewhere.
So, which games have made it into our carefully curated selection? We are still keen on some West Coast action in the USC vs. Cal matchup. The Oklahoma vs. Kansas game offers too much value to disregard, and there’s also the intriguing SEC clash between Tennessee and Kentucky.
Let’s go ahead and break down the NCAAF odds to get ready for another thrilling Saturday!
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
Good Things End
Oklahoma’s been steadily climbing toward the Top 5 of ranked teams ever since they took down Texas in the Red River Rivalry. Here’s a little secret for you: the Sooners are actually the third-best team in the nation when it comes to covering the spread, boasting an impressive 6-1 record.
They’ve already scored a sweet +4.1 units for their backers. But, you know what they say, all good things come to an end – and that first spread loss happened just last week, courtesy of Central Florida.
Sooners or Later
Now, let’s talk about the flip side of the coin – Kansas hasn’t exactly been a goldmine for bettors, and to make matters worse, they’re going to be without their injured starting QB, Jalon Daniels. On the other hand, you’ve got Oklahoma, the only ranked team in this matchup, and their QB, Dillon Gabriel, is playing at a Heisman-worthy level. It’s no wonder the public is all aboard the Sooners’ hype train.
But here’s the kicker: despite all the Sooners’ buzz, the betting line has actually shifted in favor of Kansas since it first opened. My colleague, LT Profits, who knows a thing or two about the numbers, believes there’s some last-minute value to be found in the Jayhawks, based on his model.
The Pick
“Kansas has the offense to keep pace with Oklahoma here, ranking 29th in the country in total offense at 443.3 yards per game and seventh in yards per play at 7.2, which is even better than Oklahoma’s yards per play of 6.5. Plus, the Jayhawks are coming off a bye, allowing for two weeks to prepare vs. a 91st-ranked Sooners pass defense.
“Luckily, the Jayhawks are still in good hands with backup Jason Bean as he was the starter the last two years while competently directing a high-powered offense, including leading Kansas to a 42-point outburst at Oklahoma last season.” – LT Profits
NCAAF Pick: Kansas +9.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Houston Cougars vs. Kansas State Wildcats
Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Bill Snyder Family Stadium
Trendy Underdog
Houston has certainly made some waves in their debut year in the Big 12 conference. The Cougars, sporting a 4-3 record against the spread (ATS), have come through with the goods in three out of their last four games. This includes a wild Hail Mary victory that shocked West Virginia and a high-profile cover just last week against Texas.
While their name might be getting some well-deserved recognition, there’s no denying their share of inconsistencies, like those games against Texas Tech and Rice. So, even though grabbing 17 points with a trendy underdog might seem like a savvy move, our college football expert, Willie Bee, is leaning toward the Kansas State Wildcats with his best bets for Week 9 for a reason.
The Pick
“Give Houston credit for at least making things uncomfortable for Texas this past weekend. A couple of turnovers and the absence of any ground attack ultimately did the Cougars in, but they still cashed as 24-point underdogs in the 31-24 loss. Kansas State throttled TCU in Week 8, easily covering the spread in a 41-3 final.
“The Wildcats were your basic unstoppable force with close to 600 yards of offense and 29 first downs. It should be relatively easy for the Wildcats to move the ball against the porous Houston defense, and my free pick is to lay the points in a 45-17 K-State victory.” – Willie Bee
NCAAF Pick: Kansas State -17 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Ohio State Buckeyes vs. Wisconsin Badgers
Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at Camp Randall Stadium
Fading Ryan Day
This season I haven’t missed an opportunity to bet against Ryan Day, Kyle McCord, and Ohio State. In the beginning, it paid off. But it’s also taught me some intriguing lessons, especially when it comes to opposing coaches (yes, James Franklin, I’m looking at you).
Now, the Badgers are heading into this game with serious motivation. They’ve won 4 of their last 5 (going 3-2 ATS). And they get the chance to face the #3 ranked team in the nation right in their own backyard. Here’s hoping this is the game where Luke Fickell unleashes his air raid approach in full force. Besides, our upset specialist, Rainman, sees Wisconsin in a prime position, so let’s roll with the Badgers.
The Pick
“I find that the Buckeyes are favored too heavily, in view of their offensive decline relative to last season. Last year, they averaged 44.2 points per game. This season, their points per game average is 33.5. Their current scoring average is also inflated by the cupcakes that they faced out of conference. The only strong non-conference or Big Ten teams that their offense thrived against were Maryland and Purdue.
“With Braedyn Locke, we will see quick, short passes that facilitate quick touchdown drives, but we will also see some nice throws downfield, just as we did last week. The Badgers will succeed primarily on the ground against an Ohio State run defense that is allowing 123.3 rushing yards per road game.” – Rainman
NCAAF Pick: Wisconsin +15 (-110) at BetOnline
Florida State Seminoles vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Demonic Challenges
Wake Forest has faced its fair share of challenges this season, particularly on the offensive front, where they had to rely on their third-string quarterback in an unexpected upset over Pittsburgh. Nevertheless, the backbone of this team has been its defense, and in games like last week and two weeks ago against Clemson, this defensive unit really stepped up.
Raising Eyebrows
With the #4 ranked Seminoles coming to town and being one of the top teams against the spread at 5-2, you might naturally expect the betting line to be somewhere around 23-24 points. However, it’s been holding steady at 21, which raises some eyebrows. It seems like the sportsbooks are trying to tempt us into betting on Florida State.
Yet, our in-house AI model firmly believes that the Demon Deacons will cover the spread, and our expert, Jason Radowitz, has chosen them as one of his top computer predictions.
The Pick
“The Wake Forest defense is good enough to hold Florida State. Wake Forest has held teams to 366 yards per game. The secondary is amazing, and the tackling has been crisp. They’ve also done well against the run and should get some stops against Florida State.
“As long as the Wake Forest quarterback can play complementary football and not turn the ball over, I still like Wake Forest to cover against the spread at the top sportsbooks. Florida State has been close with many mediocre teams in the ACC this season. This will be another one, thanks to Wake Forest’s defense.” – Jason Radowitz
NCAAF Pick: Wake Forest +21 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
USC Trojans vs. California Golden Bears
Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 04:00 PM EDT at California Memorial Stadium
PAC-12 Clash
You know what’s interesting? Both Georgia and USC, apart from having somewhat entitled head coaches, share another trait this season! They’re both in the Top 10 of the least profitable college football teams. It’s like a broken record in this column, where we keep discussing the idea of fading Caleb Williams, but the numbers just keep supporting our stance. The Trojans find themselves at -4.6 units as they head into this PAC-12 showdown.
And guess what, if our guru expert, Donnie RightSide, is on the same side as me, I’m feeling a whole lot more confident. By the way, you can catch more insights like this on our YouTube channel, so go ahead and enjoy!
The Pick
“USC is hitting the road to face off against Cal Berkeley, and the initial line for this game was set at -7.5. However, it’s now sitting at 10.5 at almost every betting outlet. USC, despite being a heavy favorite, is aiming to recover from last week’s loss at home against Utah.
“This PAC-12 matchup is tempting, but the last chance for value, at least for me, is not on USC with this inflated price. Instead, I’m leaning towards the Golden Bears, so I’ll gladly take the 10.5 points against the struggling Trojans.” – Donnie RightSide
NCAAF Pick: California +10.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Kentucky Wildcats
Saturday, October 28, 2023 – 07:00 PM EDT at Kroger Field
SEC Rivalry
When we talk about handicapping the numbers are a key factor. But in order to take the number seriously, we have to do the eye test. After watching the Tennessee-Alabama game last week, man, I was not impressed with the Volunteers. Tennessee had an opportunity to go back-to-back beating Alabama and they just couldn’t sustain it.
Meanwhile, Kentucky has looked good. They started off the season well but eventually lost to Georgia. Obviously no one’s going to be upset with that. However, the loss against Missouri last week raised some doubts. However, I don’t think is as bad as some people say.
The Pick
Mark Stoops demonstrated he can prepare his team for big games like the upset against Florida. Also, this is not the Tennessee from last season with Hendon Hooker. Joe Milton has been inconsistent and the defense still allowed 20 points to both the Aggies and the Gamecocks.
Tennessee is only 65th in red zone defense and the Volunteers have struggled with mental mistakes this season. They are 120th in the nation in penalties per game. Meanwhile, Kentucky is 13th against the run in the nation and it’s clear that Stoops will force Milton to beat his team, something that’s unlikely given his play so far.
Let’s back the home team in this SEC rivalry.
NCAAF Pick: Tennessee +4 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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