Top NCAAF Pick: USC +16 Buying Half Point (-119) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Here we go again! Saturday’s almost here, and we’ve got a fresh batch of Editor’s Picks for Week 11 of college football. With the regular season winding down in just two weeks, teams like Washington can’t afford many slip-ups. This gives us a golden opportunity to capitalize on some mismatches and “must-win” situations.
That said, we’re steering clear of the “Game of the Week” featuring Michigan and Penn State. I’d love to toss the Nittany Lions into our weekly curated selections, but my trauma regarding James Franklin’s track record against top Big 10 teams is enough to make me pass on this one.
Nevertheless, we’re not backing down from exciting matchups like Utah vs. Washington and USC vs. Oregon. The football festivities must continue, so let’s break down the NCAAF odds to get ready for another thrilling Saturday!
Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Kansas Jayhawks
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
Joes vs. Pros
First off, let’s dive into the matchup between Texas Tech and Kansas. The Jayhawks pulled off an incredible upset against Oklahoma a couple of weeks ago, even with their backup quarterback, Jason Bean, leading the charge. On the flip side, the Texas Tech Raiders haven’t been as fortunate, having lost their top two QBs about a month ago.
Despite this setback, Texas Tech has shown glimmers of hope. However, they’ve been somewhat overshadowed by a flurry of turnovers.
Given this, it’s understandable why the public is putting their money on Kansas. Even more with the Jayhawks at home and laying less than a touchdown against a team that took a beating from BYU, just two weeks ago. However, what few might bother to discover is that the Raiders welcomed back a crucial player last week, and, as fate would have it, they clinched a victory against TCU.
Our colleague LT Profits discovered some last-minute value on Texas Tech and we are loving it.
The Pick
“The good news is starting quarterback Behren Morton returned last week in a big win over TCU, and he looked great completing 28-of-36 passes for 282 yards with two touchdown passes and no picks.
“Kansas comes off two great wins vs. Oklahoma at home and Iowa State on the road to go to 7-2, but besides this being a prime letdown spot, the Jayhawks still struggled defensively in the two upsets, which is an area the now healthy Morton can attack.
“So despite the records of these teams, we feel Texas Tech is very undervalued due to their bad turnover luck and being without their top two quarterbacks for two losses, so take the points with the Raiders here with Morton back and healthy.” – LT Profits
NCAAF Pick: Texas Tech +4 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Utah Utes vs. Washington Huskies
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 03:30 PM ET at Husky Stadium
Tough Challenge
Moving on, let’s delve into the first of our two PAC-12 picks. Utah is heading to Seattle with the mission of dashing the Huskies’ CFP hopes. Kyle Whittingham’s enduring presence as the longest-tenured coach in the conference is justified by accomplishments like the back-to-back PAC-12 championships secured by the Utes.
Now, as defending champions, they’re up against an undefeated Washington team eager to make a statement on their home turf, facing one of the top defenses in the NCAA. It’s undeniably one of the most challenging tests for Michael Penix Jr. and his offense. However, if they could triumph over Oregon at home, tackling Utah shouldn’t be insurmountable.
Nonetheless, let’s draw a lesson from the game against the Ducks and shift our focus to the total for this matchup instead of getting bogged down in picking sides. Our college football expert Willie Bee has the under as one of his best bets for Week 11.
The Pick
“If nothing else, Washington games are exciting. The Huskies face another tough foe in their quest for an unbeaten season with a visit from Utah this weekend, the Utes being the second of three consecutive ranked teams on the Washington schedule. The ‘under’ has cashed 3 of the last 4 matchups, and Washington holds a 13-2 commanding lead in the rivalry.
“This is going to be a much tougher defense for Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies than they have faced up to now, and that’s a good thing for ‘under’ bettors.” – Willie Bee
NCAAF Pick: Under 54.5 (-108) at Bookmaker
NC State Wolfpack vs. Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 02:00 PM ET at Allegacy Federal Credit Union Stadium
Fade the Wolfpack
NC State has successfully covered in 4 out of their last 5 spreads. But here’s the catch— they were the underdogs in, you guessed it, 4 out of those 5 games. The lone spread where they were favorites, against Marshall, resulted in a narrow victory of 48-41.
Enter Wake Forest, a solid underdog, and being offered nearly a field goal at home is more than sufficient reason for me to go against NC State’s odds. Even more, if our upset expert, Rainman, is backing the Demon Deacons.
The Pick
“Demon Deacons’ quarterback Mitch Griffis is developing into a more efficient quarterback. In his team’s upset bid against Duke, he completed 84.2 percent of his passes. He’ll inject balance into the offense, complementing a rush attack that will succeed against NC State’s declined run defense that is no longer vaunted this year after losing personnel to the NFL.
“NC State’s defense also isn’t as good on the road, where the Wolfpack, for example, nearly lost to Virginia with its backup quarterback and inept rush attack.” – Rainman
NCAAF Pick: Wake Forest +2.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Rutgers Scarlet Knights vs. Iowa Hawkeyes
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 03:30 PM EST at Kinnick Stadium
Sneaky Team ATS
I get it. Rutgers’ overall record of 6-3 might not turn many heads, but did you notice that the Scarlet Knights rank among the Top 30 teams in the ATS standings?
They’ve been keeping games tight when playing as underdogs and delivering convincing wins when they’re the favorites. What’s even more intriguing is that their stats could look even better if you consider their last week’s loss against Ohio State. Despite most shops offering a spread of 19 points, the consensus leaned toward 18.5.
Facing off against a struggling Iowa offense, I wouldn’t be surprised if Rutgers pulled off a straight-up win in this one. On top of that, our college football expert, Jason Radowitz, has it as one of his top computer predictions for Week 11.
The Pick
“The Scarlet Knights, led by Gavin Wimsatt, have scored 26.8 points per game. Two of those seven games have been against Ohio State and Michigan, and yet, Rutgers has still earned nearly 27 points per game. Kyle Monangai has been a big reason why. He’s rushed for 903 yards with seven touchdowns, averaging 5.4 yards per carry. He’s one of the Big Ten’s best running backs and added 159 yards against Ohio State last weekend.
“Monangai will have his work cut out for him against Iowa. But if he can run through Michigan State, Indiana, and Ohio State and earn 100+ yards in all three of those games, there’s no reason why he can’t do that against Iowa too. Take Rutgers at +2.” – Jason Radowitz
NCAAF Pick: Rutgers +2 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Arizona Wildcats vs. Colorado Buffaloes
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 02:00 PM EST at Folsom Field
Most Profitable
Arizona is gearing up for a formidable challenge this week. It’s not just about heading to Folsom Field to take on Colorado, which is a task in itself, but there’s an added layer— they currently boast the best record ATS. Yes, you heard it right. The Wildcats have emerged as the most profitable team to bet on in college football this season.
Here’s the kicker: after clinching four consecutive upsets, Arizona now finds itself as a 9.5-point favorite on the road. Despite this shift in dynamics, the sharp money keeps pouring in on Arizona, while the public remains captivated by the allure of the Prime Time effect.
Our YouTube star and college football guru, Donnie RightSide, likes the Wildcats and so do I!
The Pick
“Arizona is going up against Colorado. Arizona is playing some good football as of late, while Colorado is in a little bit of turmoil, demoting their offensive coordinator and bringing in Pat Shurmur to step in. Despite the change, they are still performing poorly on offense. You know what that means? Arizona is going to come to town and pulverize the Colorado Buffalo. The line is hovering at nine and a half at most outlets. We think a double-digit win here is in the back pocket for the Arizona Fighting Wildcats.” – Donnie RightSide
NCAAF Pick: Arizona -9.5 (-110) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
USC Trojans vs. Oregon Ducks
Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 10:30 PM ET at Autzen Stadium
Humbling Loss
Alright, time to revisit the PAC-12 action. Not just because it’s the third go-around with teams from this conference, but mainly because it’s been a lucrative play for us in the past few weeks. Our shot at SEC glory took a nosedive last week, especially after Jayden Daniels got injured in the third quarter.
Around the same time the Tigers were taking a beating from the Crimson Tide, USC and Washington were locked in a fantastic offensive showdown. Regardless of your feelings about Caleb Williams’s personality, it’s hard to deny that it’s a pity the kid doesn’t have a solid defense backing him up.
I’ve been fading USC all season. Still, I have to admit that witnessing Williams searching for his mom in the stands after the loss gave me a glimmer of hope for humanity. More importantly, from a betting perspective, we can leverage that emotional momentum to our advantage.
Still a Heisman?
Williams remains the Heisman player from last year. Sure, teams have more tape on him now, but he can still move the chains in a heartbeat. The buzz this week centers around how his draft prospects aren’t as high as they were at the season’s start.
The Trojans’ chances of CFP glory are long gone. However, Williams can still make a case for being the overall first-draft pick in the 2024 NFL Draft. If Penix Jr. struggles against Utah and Williams outshines Bo Nix in Oregon, the Heisman Trophy race could take an intriguing turn.
The Pick
Oregon ranks among the best teams in college football currently. However, when they had the opportunity to beat Washington on the road, they stumbled. They also faced challenges in overcoming Texas Tech in Week 1. I know that was over two months ago, but my point is that the Ducks have waddled inconsistently this season.
I’m not putting money on a USC win. I am suggesting that Williams and company keep it within two scores against a formidable Oregon team.
NCAAF Pick: USC +16 Buying Half Point (-119) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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