College Football Week 11 Best Bets: Scoring Out for a Smoke in Duke-UNC Game

profile image of Willie.Bee

NCAAF Pick: Michigan -4½ (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)

Heritage Sports logo
Michigan -4½ (-108)
Visit Site

Can Penn State end its Big Ten skid against top 10 foes? Can Washington remain unbeaten in the Pac-12? And why is the Duke-UNC football game such a big deal on the Week 11 college football odds slate? Those answers and more are a click away.

Michigan Wolverines vs. Penn State Nittany Lions

Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 12:00 PM ET at Beaver Stadium

Can’t help but laugh a little at all this sign-stealing nonsense involving Michigan, and judging by the way the Wolverines are blowing past opponents, they’re having a good chuckle as well.

It isn’t expected to be nearly as easy for Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines this week when they travel to Penn State. After winning all 9 of their games by 24+ points, the Wolverines are favored by 4½-5½ over the Nittany Lions, with the total 43½-44 on Monday morning lines.

Favorite Covers 8 of Last 9 Meetings

Last year in Ann Arbor saw the Wolverines run roughshod on the Nittany Lions, 41-17. Favored by a touchdown at top sportsbooks, Michigan rushed for 400+ yards and had better than a 2:1 advantage on the clock to take a 16-10 lead in the rivalry, all 26 games as Big Ten foes.

It was a more competitive affair two years ago at State College where the Wolverines scored a 21-17 triumph as 2½-point favorites. Four of the last five at Beaver Stadium went past the totals.

UM Tops Nation in Total Defense

Statistically, this is one of the strongest Michigan teams ever. The Wolverines rank first in the Big Ten in total offense, scoring, total defense, fewest points allowed, third down conversions, and fewest penalties.

Penn State isn’t far behind Michigan in many of those categories, but the Nittany Lions still seem light years behind when it comes to facing a top 10 team in the regular season. The last time they beat a Big Ten top 10 in the regular season? October 2008, a couple of years before many heard the name Jerry Sandusky, going 0-16 since.

The Maize & Blue Special keeps rolling: Michigan 28-16.

NCAAF Pick: Michigan -4½ (-108) at Heritage Sports

Utah Utes vs. Washington Huskies

Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 03:30 PM ET at Husky Stadium

If nothing else, Washington games are exciting. The Huskies face another tough foe in their quest for an unbeaten season with a visit from Utah this weekend, the Utes being the second of three consecutive ranked teams on the Washington schedule.

First Meeting in 3 Seasons

The pandemic kept the attendance down to 259 (officially) when the teams collided in Seattle three years ago, and those 259 basically got to see two games in one. Utah bullied its way to a 21-0 halftime lead, then Washington scored 24 unanswered points in the second half for the win.

Utah was getting 9 in that contest, which ended a string of 3-straight covers for the favorite. The ‘under’ has cashed 3 of the last 4 matchups, and Washington holds a 13-2 commanding lead in the rivalry.

Utes Enough D to Keep it ‘Under’

A quick check of the NCAAF odds at BMR finds Washington backers needing to give up 8½-9 with the scoreboard target running from 53-54½. This is going to be a much tougher defense for Michael Penix Jr. and the Huskies than they have faced up to now, and that’s a good thing for ‘under’ bettors.

NCAAF Pick: Utah-Washington Under 54½ (-108) at Heritage Sports

Heritage Sports logo
Utah-Washington Under 54½ (-108)
Visit Site

Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels

Saturday, November 11, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Kenan Stadium

We still have nearly three months to wait before we see Duke and North Carolina tangle on the hardwood, but until then, we’ll have to bide our time watching the Blue Devils and Tar Heels bust each other up in a gridiron gathering that actually has some meaning in the ACC race.

Underdog Covers 6 of Last 10 Collisions

North Carolina has won the last four matchups, two of them in lopsided fashion, to take a 63-41 lead in the rivalry, with 4 ties. Last year’s contest in Durham went down to the final seconds before the Tar Heels scored to win it 38-35.

Duke got the cover as a 7-point home underdog in that one, but North Carolina covered a 19½-point spread a year earlier in Chapel Hill where the Tar Hills cruised to a 38-7 win. The last three meetings at Kenan Stadium stopped short of the totals.

Duke Leads ACC in Scoring Defense

The winner still needs some help to finish second in the ACC and head to the conference championship, but the loser is definitely out of the picture. Injuries to Duke’s top two QBs have been driving the odds – and the betting – that find the Tar Heels -11 after opening -9½. The ‘under’ trend in the matchups played in Chapel Hill is enough for me to play it that way with my final free pick for Week 11.

NCAAF Pick: Duke-UNC Under 50½ (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

BetOnline logo
Duke-UNC Under 50½ (-110)
Visit Site

*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.