NCAAF Pick: LSU +3.5 Buying Half Point (-128) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Week 10 has arrived along with the inaugural CFP Rankings following the Selection Committee’s unveiling on October 31st. Notably, Georgia dropped to #2 despite holding the #1 spot since preseason. Also, with the first rankings public, each game gains added significance for the 25 teams aiming to secure one of the four spots in the College Football Playoffs.
With that in mind, let’s delve into our College Football Week 10 Editor’s Picks, featuring some exciting matchups. The early Noon slot promises plenty of action, and we’ve also got selections for the evening, including the highly anticipated SEC clash between LSU and Alabama.
Let’s go ahead and break down the NCAAF odds to get ready for another thrilling Saturday!
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Liberty Flames
Saturday, November 04, 2023 – 06:00 PM EDT at Williams Stadium
Cash Cows
For our first pick, we’re diving into the Conference USA, where Liberty is on a hot streak, sitting pretty at 8-0 with a 6-2 ATS record. They’ve been one of the cash cows in college football this regular season, but a big part of their success has to do with their relatively easy schedule.
Now, let’s switch gears to Louisiana Tech. They’ve shown flashes of serious talent, no doubt. However, they’ve been quite up and down in terms of consistency. Nevertheless, they’ve managed to keep games tight, even in their recent losses. What’s intriguing is that the Bulldogs are getting more than two touchdowns. I like the last-minute value our colleague LT Profits has uncovered in this game.
The Pick
“There are good reasons why Liberty remains unranked at 8-0, and it all starts with the schedule. According to our proprietary power standings, six of their eight wins have come vs. teams we have rated outside of the Top 100 in the FBS and the other two wins have come vs. teams we have in the 90s with the “best” win coming vs. our 90th rated team Jacksonville State.
“Louisiana Tech comes in at 3-6, but four of their six losses have been by one possession, and another was by 14 points at Nebraska in Big Ten country, yet they are now +17 vs. an overrated team that is not close to Nebraska’s caliber. And remember that Bulldogs’ starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier was injured early in the year and missed some time, yet the team still remained competitive and he is now back.
“So to sum things up, Liberty is not nearly as good as its 8-0 record while Louisiana Tech profiles better than a 3-6 team, so take this abundance of points in this spot.” – LT Profits
NCAAF Pick: Louisiana Tech +17 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Arkansas Razorbacks vs. Florida Gators
Saturday, November 04, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Disappointing Teams
Arkansas has been nothing short of disappointing, having endured a six-game losing streak that pretty much seals the fate of their season. On the flip side, Florida is reeling from a humbling loss to Georgia, where they gave up the highest point total at the biggest cocktail party.
Given these circumstances, it’s not easy to get pumped up for this matchup. However, our college football maestro, Willie Bee, has uncovered a promising betting strategy for this game, specifically related to the total. Let’s dive into why he’s backing the Under as one of his best bets for the week.
The Pick
“It’s already a lost season for Sam Pittman and the Razorbacks who dropped their sixth in a row two weeks ago at home to Mississippi State. It’s nicer to call the Bulldogs 7-3 win a defensive battle than to say both offenses stunk.
“Florida scored first in its annual rivalry with Georgia last week, but the elation was short-lived as the Bulldogs scored the nest 36 points in a 43-20 final. The Gators have road matchups at LSU and Missouri and a home game with Florida State after this contest.
“Florida should bounce back into the win column and beat Arkansas by a TD, but it’s better to end this with a free pick on the total falling short.” – Willie Bee
NCAAF Pick: Under 50.5 (-108) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Kansas State Wildcats vs. Texas Longhorns
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Big 12 Showdown
Now, let’s take a trip to the Big 12, where we’ve got the showdown between Kansas State and Texas on our radar. The Longhorns are facing a bit of a setback with their starting QB, Quinn Ewers, out due to injury, yet they’re still giving up over a field goal.
On the other side of the field, K-State has been heating up lately. They’ve not only been winning but also covering the spread in their last three games, and it’s been quite convincing.
Our go-to upset expert, Rainman, has a hunch that they’re ready for another shocker, and I’m on board with him on this one. Be sure to check out his in-depth analysis.
The Pick
“Last year, the Longhorns relied heavily on running back Bijan Robinson, an irreplaceable force who now plays for the Atlanta Falcons. Moreover, this year’s Longhorns relied on quarterback Quinn Ewers, but Ewers is injured, so freshman Maalik Murphy is starting in his place, which hinders Texas’ offense.
“As the rankings show, K-State’s run defense is better this year than it was last year. It took time, but inexperience and positional moves are no longer holding the Wildcats back.
“They now rank 35th nationally in rush defense, which will put too much pressure on Texas’ backup quarterback. Plus, the Wildcats have improved drastically against the pass. The last two quarterbacks they faced had their worst game of the season against them.” – Rainman
NCAAF Pick: Kansas State +4 (-105) at BetOnline
Nebraska Cornhuskers vs. Michigan State Spartans
Saturday, November 04, 2023 – 12:00 PM EDT at Spartan Stadium
Dose of Defense
I’ve got to be honest here; Nebraska hasn’t really wowed me this season, especially on the offensive front. Nevertheless, they do bring a hefty dose of defensive consistency to the table, and that could work in their favor for the upcoming clash with Michigan State.
The Spartans have had their fair share of problems, both on and off the field, and now they’re up against a team that could secure a bowl berth with a victory. I’m in sync with our AI model and Jason Radowitz’s computer picks on this one. The signs are pointing toward Nebraska.
The Pick
“Nebraska is one win away from earning bowl eligibility in Matt Rhule’s first season as head coach. The Cornhuskers have won four of their last five games, winning them all by at least eight points.
“The Spartans have gone 2-6 this season. They even lost to Minnesota, 27-12, last weekend, when Minnesota hasn’t displayed any consistency with its offense.
“Michigan State’s defense isn’t terrible. But the offense with Katin Houser surely won’t get the job done. I like Nebraska to escape with at least a two-score cover in this game.” – Jason Radowitz
NCAAF Pick: Nebraska -3 (-110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Oklahoma Sooners vs. Oklahoma State Cowboys
Saturday, November 04, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Boone Pickens Stadium
Bedlam Series
The Oklahoma Sooners had been making a strong case to break into the Top 5 of the AP Poll rankings and, potentially, even make a run for a College Football Playoff (CFP) spot. However, all those hopes came crashing down last week following a shocking upset by the Kansas Jayhawks. Currently, the Sooners hold a 6-2 ATS record, with those two failures to cover the spread occurring in their last two games.
On the flip side, we’ve got Oklahoma State charging into the Bedlam Series with an impressive four-game winning streak, covering the spread each time. What’s even more remarkable is that they were considered underdogs in three of those matchups. The Cowboys, particularly at home, bring a ton of energy to the game. I’m inclined to side with our YouTube sensation, Donnie RightSide, on this one.
The Pick
“The Bedlam Series, the game in the Big 12, and quite frankly, maybe the last time these two rivals play each other. Can you imagine that one team is going to the SEC, while the other stays in the Big 12? There’s going to be some animosity. The lines opened up at a minus 6 and a half point price for Oklahoma, but that’s now down to 5 and a half at a few outlets.
“Here’s where it gets interesting. We’re going to put the Oklahoma Sooners on upset alert. Why? Well, they just haven’t been playing good football lately. They could have lost to UCF and actually lost to Kansas in their last game before the Bedlam Series. And to add to the drama, the game is at Oklahoma State. So, Oklahoma Sooners, you are officially on upset alert. Make sure you’re ready for an intense showdown!” – Donnie RightSide
NCAAF Pick: Oklahoma State +6 (-108) at Heritage Sports
LSU Tigers vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Saturday, November 04, 2023 – 07:45 PM EDT at Bryant-Denny Stadium
Rowdy In Tuscaloosa
Now, last but certainly not least, it’s my turn to dive into my pick, and we’re heading to the SEC for what promises to be an exciting matchup between LSU and Alabama.
I’ll admit, going up against Nick Saban at home always makes me a tad nervous. And when you throw in LSU’s inconsistency, it’s a potential recipe for some sleepless nights. Just think about that game against Ole Miss a few weeks back – yikes!
Crucial Factor
But here’s where I see a crucial factor in this showdown: the quarterback play. While it appears that Jalen Millroe has found his groove, it’s hard to deny that the most accomplished passer on that field will be Jayden Daniels. Daniels is making a compelling case for the Heisman.
If he has a standout performance in Tuscaloosa, he could leapfrog the current favorite, Michael Penix Jr., from Washington.
The Pick
Also, credit where it’s due – Brian Kelly has this team firing on all cylinders, particularly on the offensive front. This presents one of the toughest challenges that Saban and the Crimson Tide have encountered this season.
If Texas could roll into Tuscaloosa and pull off an outright win against Alabama, I’m inclined to believe that LSU could at least cover the spread. But remember, it’s crucial to buy that hook for added insurance!
NCAAF Pick: LSU +3.5 Buying Half Point (-128) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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