Top NCAAF Pick: USC +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have now reached Week 10 of the 2023 College Football season, and we are here with our three best bets for Saturday holding last-minute value even at this late stage of the week.
These bets are value bets based on our proprietary model, many of which are underdogs, and we have two such value dogs this week including a prime-time nationally televised battle, as well as an SEC total to kick things off.
Missouri Tigers vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 03:30 PM EDT at Sanford Stadium
We are backing the Over in an anticipated aerial battle of the quarterbacks when Missouri visits Georgia on Saturday afternoon.
#2 in CFP?
Georga remains number one in the AP Poll as it has been all year, but the Bulldogs may be on a mission here as they are number two in the College Football Playoff Rankings behind Ohio State despite scoring 131 points in their last three games vs. SEC competition.
The running game has not been up to the rushing standards of recent Georgia teams, but the Bulldogs are fourth in the country in passing offense at 334.2 yards per game with quarterback Carson Beck completing 73.0% of his passes for 9.4 yards per attempt with 14 touchdown passes vs. four interceptions. We expect continued success this week vs. the 63rd-ranked Missouri pass defense.
Also Pass-Heavy
Missouri is 7-1, with the only loss being a “good” one by 10 points to LSU, and the offense has been very consistent while scoring at least 30 points in seven of the eight games under new offensive coordinator Kirby Moore. Granted, scoring 30 points vs. the Georgia defense may be a tall order, but the Missouri combination of quarterback Brady Cook and slot receiver Luther Burden III gives the Tigers a chance.
Just like Georgia, the Missouri passing offense has been better than the running game with the Tigers averaging 293.1 passing yards per game, with advanced metrics showing Cook with a Big Time Throws/Turnover Worthy Plays ratio of 20/7 and Burden rated as the best slot receiver in the country by Pro Football Focus.
Besides, with Georgia dominating offensively right now, Missouri may not need to score 30 for this game to go Over, and we do feel the Tigers are equipped in the passing game to score enough to cash this Over ticket.
Predicted Score: Georgia 38 – Missouri 24
NCAAF Pick: Over 55.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs vs. Liberty Flames
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 06:00 PM EDT at Williams Stadium
In our lone venture outside the power conferences this week, we are taking the boatload of points with Louisiana Tech vs. an 8-0 Liberty team that has gone undefeated vs. one the easiest schedules in the country and with a very lucky turnover margin.
Unranked for Reason
There are good reasons why Liberty remains unranked at 8-0, and it all starts with the schedule. According to our proprietary power standings, six of their eight wins have come vs. teams we have rated outside of the Top 100 in the FBS and the other two wins have come vs. teams we have in the 90s with the “best” win coming vs. our 90th rated team Jacksonville State.
Furthermore, Jacksonville State was dealing with quarterback injuries when Liberty beat them, and the Flames barely beat Middle Tennessee State and Sam Houston State at home. Not to mention that Liberty leads the nation with 16 interceptions, leading to an extremely lucky turnover margin of +10.4, the third highest in the nation. In short, this does not profile as a team worthy of laying 17 points despite the 8-0 mark.
Most Games Close
Louisiana Tech comes in at 3-6, but four of their six losses have been by one possession, and another was by 14 points at Nebraska in Big Ten country, yet they are now +17 vs. an overrated team that is not close to Nebraska’s caliber. And remember that Bulldogs’ starting quarterback Hank Bachmeier was injured early in the year and missed some time, yet the team still remained competitive and he is now back.
Furthermore, LA Tech has been on the opposite side of Liberty on the luck spectrum, with the Bulldogs recovering only two fumbles all season and their opponents converting a ridiculous 14-of-18 fourth down attempts. Thus, the four one-possession losses may have ended differently with “normal” luck.
So to sum things up, Liberty is not nearly as good as its 8-0 record while Louisiana Tech profiles better than a 3-6 team, so take this abundance of points in this spot.
Predicted Score: Liberty 34 – Louisiana Tech 24
NCAAF Pick: Louisiana Tech +17 (-116) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Washington Huskies vs. USC Trojans
Saturday, November 4, 2023 – 07:30 PM EDT at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
This nationally televised Pac-12 clash looks like a great “buy low” spot for USC as a home underdog fully capable of putting up points through the air vs. the Washington injury-plagued pass defense.
Six Straight ATS Losses
Further fueling the “buy low” mentality regarding USC is the team coming in on a six-game ATS losing streak, but that is giving us an opportunity here to grab a still-ranked (20th) 7-2 team with the reigning Heisman Trophy winner Caleb Williams at quarterback as a home underdog.
Williams now gets to work on a Washington defense that has lost three safeties and edge rusher Tuli Letuligasenoa to injuries, so we feel the Trojans will at least match if not surpass Washington’s potent offense here with an offense ranked seventh nationally in passing offense and ninth in yards per pass attempt (9.4) vs. a depleted secondary and a diminished pass rush.
Undefeated How Much Longer?
Washington comes in 8-0 and ranked sixth in the land, but the injuries on defense are starting to take a toll, with the last four wins all being by one possession, and they were outgained while allowing 495 total yards to a less-than-mediocre Stanford offense last week. The injuries have contributed to the defense plummeting to an abysmal 98th in total defense and 118th in passing defense.
The Huskies have remained undefeated by literally outscoring teams, ranking fifth in total offense, but that offense has been one-dimensional as Washington leads the country in passing offense at 399.0 yards per game but is 119th in rushing. The issue there is the USC defense grades out much better vs. the pass than vs. the run with talented defensive backs and a pass rush generating 2.8 sacks per game.
Thus, the points are worth taking in a potential back-and-forth affair as we are calling for a USC upset, with the Washington injuries on defense finally resulting in their first loss.
Predicted Score: USC 41 – Washington 37
NCAAF Pick: USC +3 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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