Top NCAAB Pick: VCU -5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Weeknight cards are starting to get bigger after New Year’s Day. We have 37 games on the main board for Wednesday already. Coming off a 3-0 sweep last night, we are back with three more best bets for this evening.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays involve major conferences. One such mid-major best bet, but the other two are major conference plays from the Big East and Big Ten.
Let’s dive into this week’s NCAAB odds and see how to start the year profiting at our main offshore sportsbooks!
Xavier Musketeers vs. Villanova Wildcats
Wednesday, January 03, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at Finneran Pavilion
Villanova may be ranked 22nd overall on Kenpom, but we think the Wildcats are a bit overrated. We’ll look for Xavier to hang close and cover the spread in this Big East matchup.
If Not for Rebounding…
Villanova looks well-balanced in the efficiency metrics ranking 39th offensively and 17th defensively. Although we see holes on both ends of the court despite those rankings. The defensive efficiency is spurred by ranking 11th in defensive rebounding percentage, but the Wildcats are only 84th in eFG% allowed and a disturbing 195th in 3-point defense.
On the offensive end, the Cats are just 206th in eFG% and 227th in 2-point shooting. Furthermore, they play at a very slow pace, ranking 314th in Tempo Rating grading out at 66.3 possessions, which in and of itself would make covering as decided favorites like they are here more difficult. That tempo is a key reason why Villanova is 216th in points scored at 73.6 PPG.
Better eFG% For and Against
While the Musketeers rank lower in efficiency on both ends at 82nd offensively and 24th defensively, they also rank slightly higher in offensive eFG% in 174th. They are significantly better in eFG% against on defense, ranking 17th at 44.4% allowed compared to 47.5% for Villanova.
And Xavier is equally as good defending 2-pointers (32nd) and 3-pointers (33rd). Yes, Villanova figures to dominate in defensive rebounding, and thus should not allow many second chances, but that is the only defensive edge we see for the Wildcats. These teams are quite close offensively when weighing percentages over efficiency.
The Pick
Combining Xavier’s ability to make stops with Villanova’s slow pace, the Musketeers should stay close and take the generous points on the road.
Predicted Score: Villanova 70 – Xavier 66
NCAAB Pick: Xavier +8.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Indiana Hoosiers vs. Nebraska Cornhuskers
Wednesday, January 03, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Pinnacle Bank Arena
This is a matchup of two Big Ten teams on opposite trajectories relative to preseason expectations. We’ll look for Nebraska to continue their fine start with a handy home win over visiting Indiana on Wednesday.
Already a Nice Big Ten Win
Nebraska is a nice 11-2 to begin the season. The Cornhuskers already own a big conference win here at home over a Michigan State team ranked 20th overall. That win over MSU started the Huskers’ current 4-game winning streak. That includes a nice 16-point non-conference win over Kansas State on the road.
The Cornhuskers are a respectable 49th in offensive efficiency at 112.2 points per 100 possessions. The biggest key to their early success has been a defense that ranks seventh in the country in eFG% allowed. They have been limiting opponents to 43.6% shooting on 2-pointers (21st) and 28.1% shooting on 3-pointers (16th). Thus, allowing only 65.5 points per game has not been a fluke.
Mighty Have Fallen?
Now granted, Indiana is 10-3, but the Hoosiers lost to the three highest-ranked Kenpom teams they faced while winning just two games against the Top 100 with the highest-ranked team they have beaten being 59th. Well, Nebraska ranks a bit above that in 53rd. The scarcity of quality wins is a huge reason Indiana now ranks 88th on Kenpom despite the 10 wins after beginning the season in 50th.
The Hoosiers are 62nd in eFG% with all their success coming on the interior, as they rank 41st in two-point shooting but 230th from beyond the arc at a measly 31.9%. That should make Indiana even easier to defend for a stout Nebraska defense that already excels on all parts of the floor.
The Pick
While only one game separates these two teams record-wise, Nebraska has done it against the tougher schedule. They also have an elite-level defense, so bet the Cornhuskers to cover this moderate spread at home.
Predicted Score: Nebraska 77 – Indiana 66
NCAAB Pick: Nebraska -5.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
St. Bonaventure Bonnies vs. Virginia Commonwealth Rams
Wednesday, January 03, 2024 – 09:00 PM ET at Stuart C. Siegel Center
We venture into the Atlantic 10 for our third play, and in the conference opener for both teams, we feel the expected dominance closer to the basket for VCU will be enough to produce a safe home win over St. Bonaventure.
Inside Matchup Key
VCU enters this game at just 8-5, and at 89th, they rank 12 spots lower than the Bonnies overall on Kenpom. However, this is a nice matchup stylistically for the Rams, as they should be able to do whatever they want on the interior. You see, VCU ranks 30th in the country in 2-point shooting at 56.2%, while 2-point defense is the weakest link of the Bonnies defense, as they are 199th at 50.9%.
It also does not hurt that the Rams figure to get to the foul line more, as they have a FTA/FGA ratio of 36.1%, while St. Bonaventure is at 26.3% in that same metric ranking 322nd in the country. Those extra trips could prove vital considering each team shoots free throws at practically the same rate (77.8% and 77.3%). Also, these teams are fairly even in all other offensive components.
Barely Two Top 100 Wins
While it is true that the Bonnies own the only two Kenpom Top 100 wins for either team here, that could be taken with a grain of salt in this case, since those two wins came against teams ranked 98th and 99th at the time, so it is not as if St. Bonaventure has some huge scheduling edge.
Thus, we think the numbers can be taken at face value, and the Bonnies’ inability to defend the interior is the main reason why they are 123rd in eFG% allowed. Conversely, VCU is an excellent 24th with no separation defending 2-pointers (36th) and 3-pointers (38th).
The Pick
With VCU having the better defense based on shooting percentages, and also having the biggest tactical advantage in the game offensively, bet the Rams to win by a bigger margin than this line suggests.
Predicted Score: VCU 72 – St. Bonaventure 61
NCAAB Pick: VCU -5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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