Top NCAAB Pick: Old Dominion vs. Arkansas Over 144.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
It is a bigger than usual NCAA Basketball board for a Monday at the top offshore sportsbooks, and we are here with our three best bets of the day.
These are value-based bets based on our proprietary model, so not all the plays will involve major conferences. Our three Monday best bets include two totals and one side.
Stony Brook Seawolves vs. Duquesne Dukes
Monday, November 13, 2023 – 07:00 PM ET at UPMC Cooper Fieldhouse
Value is often found in the most under-the-radar matchups, and such is the case here as with these teams a combined 3-0 for the Over, this total seems inflated and we are betting the Under when Stony Brook visits Duquesne on Monday.
Still Bad Offensively
The main reason we like the Under here is that despite Stony Brook going Over in their opener and then putting up 91 points vs. sub-level St. Joseph’s NY last game, they remain offensively challenged and we feel they will struggle to score much more than 60 points in their return to Division I play this evening.
You see, not only are the Seawolves rated 258th on Kenpom in offensive efficiency, but they also play at a slow pace ranking 292nd in Tempo at 68.7 possessions, and considering that they are big underdogs in this game, they will almost certainly slow the game again in an attempt to stay within reach.
Good Enough Defense
Stony also now goes from facing a sub-level defense to facing a respectable Duquesne defense rated 98th in efficiency at 99.1 points per 100 possessions. The one weakness holding the Dukes back defensively is three-point defense as they are allowing a 34.0% success rate, but that is not much of a concern vs. a poor-shooting Seawolves team hitting an anemic 25% beyond the arc.
Now granted, Duquesne ranks 74th in offensive efficiency at a nice 107.5 points per 100 possessions but as long as the heavily favored Dukes maintain a safe lead, they will have no incentive to take Stony Brook out of their slow pace as it would actually benefit them, thus reducing the scoring for both teams.
Therefore, we project this total to finish about 10 points less than the posted total, making the Under our wager here.
Predicted Score: Duquesne 75 – Stony Brook 61
NCAAB Pick: Under 146 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Old Dominion Monarchs vs. Arkansas Razorbacks
Monday, November 13, 2023 – 08:00 PM ET at Bud Walton Arena
Unlike our first selection, we think points will be bountiful when Old Dominion goes into SEC territory to take on Arkansas, so we are going Over this total Monday.
Top 15 Team
Arkansas is ranked 13th in the country overall on Kenpom, with a big reason being an offense ranked 22nd in efficiency at a fat 113.0 points per 100 possessions, and we could easily see the Razorbacks reaching 90 points vs. an Old Dominion defense ranked 150th in efficiency.
The Hogs are hitting 39,6% of their three-pointers and 59.1% of their two-pointers, leading to a 34th ranking in eFG% at 59.2%, with the only thing they have not done well is shoot free throws (only 64.7%). However, they are still generating points from the foul line via volume, ranking 10th in FTA/FGA ratio at 59.6, and they are facing an ODU team that fouls a lot ranking 335th in FTA/FGA ratio allowed at 56.6.
May Not Need Much
With Arkansas expected to score in every which way vs. the Old Dominion defense, the Monarchs may not need to score much more than 60 points to push this game Over, which we see as a very doable feat, especially with expected late garbage time as around a 21-point underdog.
The Monarchs added scoring help in Wichita State transfer Chaunce Jenkins, and he has made an instant impact averaging 18.0 points, including scoring 20 in a 73-68 road loss at Ball State Saturday where ODU had the lead with 2:00 left, only to see Ball State make seven free throws down the stretch to seal the deal.
Add in complimentary scorers Tyrone Williams and Vasean Allette and we think that Old Dominion, while not scoring enough to keep pace with an SEC powerhouse, will score enough to more than help this Over along.
Predicted Score: Arkansas 90 – Old Dominion 69
NCAAB Pick: Over 144.5 (-105) at Bookmaker
UC Santa Barbara Gauchos vs. UTEP Miners
Monday, November 13, 2023 – 09:00 PM ET at Don Haskins Center
We are looking for a small upset with Cal Santa Barbara visiting UTEP and escaping El Paso with an outright win as around a 3-point underdog.
First Test
Do not be fooled by UTEP winning their first two games by scores of 120-71 and 123-72, as those were vs, a couple of sub-level schools and the Miners could be in for a rude awakening tonight in their Division I opener. After all, this is still a team ranked only 148th overall and 222nd in offensive efficiency on Kenpom, which ignores the two 120-point outbursts in what basically amounted to scrimmages.
Do not expect a carryover vs. real competition, as the Miners return only 54.3% of the scoring production from a team that went just 14-18 last season and received no notable help via the transfer portal. Thus, this could be a prime fade spot with this line skewed a bit by two unrealistic results.
Bounce-Back Expected
UCSB is the defending Big West champion, earning the bid to the NCAA Tournament last season, and unlike UTEP, the Gauchos opened the season vs. a Division I opponent in Portland State. The result was a surprising one though with UCSB getting upset at home 82-76 as 10.5-point favorites.
Still, the Gauchos shot 51.9% from the field including 40% from three-point range (8-for-20), and they also won the rebounding and assist battles, only to be done in by an uncharacteristic 18 turnovers. We think that was an anomaly though and expect much better ball protection vs. the still untested UTEP defense tonight.
So, with UCSB expected to rebound from a probably undeserved loss and UTEP potentially over-confident after feasting on two outclassed foes, take the points with Santa Barbara in a potential upset.
Predicted Score: Cal Santa Barbara 74 – UTEP 70
NCAAB Pick: Cal Santa Barbara +3 (-106) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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